Abstract
Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) require accurate aircraft performance estimations with high-quality weather information to initiate a paradigm shift. This paper contributes by quantitatively investigating the effect of numerical weather prediction (NWP) accuracy on aircraft performance estimation. Nowcast/forecast of wind and temperature acquired from Local Forecast (LFM), Meso Scale (MSM), and Global Spectral (GSM) models were compared over a series of ADS-B data on three domestic flight routes. In the second phase, fast-time simulations were used to simulate several tactical and strategic air traffic management applications by calculating the flight time and fuel consumption over a cruise flight segment. Several flight levels corresponding to a year worth of weather data with feasible nowcast/forecast combinations were considered. The results showed that wind forecast deviations increase with the update cycle time and forecast horizon, and record up to 6 m/s compared with LFM nowcasts. Time thresholds were defined to investigate the impact on aircraft performance estimations, and the results revealed that LFM forecasts are feasible for applications with short-temporal forecast requirements. Also, just over 50% in total estimates were eligible for meeting the performance standards in terms of long-temporal strategies with MSM/GSM forecasts. Overall results elaborated the importance of a tailored approach for applying NWP data in future ATM operational strategies.
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Kithmal Wickramasinghe, N., Nakamura, Y., Senoguchi, A. (2023). Evaluating the Influence of Weather Prediction Accuracy on Aircraft Performance Estimation. In: Lee, S., Han, C., Choi, JY., Kim, S., Kim, J.H. (eds) The Proceedings of the 2021 Asia-Pacific International Symposium on Aerospace Technology (APISAT 2021), Volume 2. APISAT 2021. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol 913. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-2635-8_56
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