Abstract
The trading of oil and gas assets in the international market has been very active, and a set of methods for evaluating the value of oil and gas assets has been formed. The most commonly used method is discounted cash flow. Overseas oil and gas investment projects face many risk factors, and traditional discounted cash flow methods cannot fully reflect the impact of risk factors on project value. It is necessary to incorporate risk analysis results into the value assessment of oil and gas assets, revise the assessment results, and effectively control risks. Take a petroleum project as an example, firstly analyze the technical risks of the project itself. Then based on the practice of similar projects, the future oil and gas production could be revised. And, according to the investment environment of the resource country, contract terms, etc., the non-technical risks faced by the project are summarized and classified. Decision tree method and Monte Carlo simulation method are selected from the common risk analysis methods to analyze the impact of maximum cash loss and asymmetric income on project investment value. Accordingly, the value evaluation results of the oil and gas project could be revised. The reasonable value of the oil project obtained could provide a reliable basis for investment decision-making.
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CNPC Project “Overseas Oil and Gas Reserve and Production Balance Analysis and SEC Reserve Increase Evaluation Technology” (2022DJ7903).
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Shao, Xj., Yi, Yj., Li, Zy., Guo, Xf. (2022). Risk Analysis and Value Evaluation Discussion of Overseas Oil and Gas Assets. In: Lin, J. (eds) Proceedings of the International Field Exploration and Development Conference 2021. IFEDC 2021. Springer Series in Geomechanics and Geoengineering. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-2149-0_49
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-2149-0_49
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