Abstract
One of the most distinguishing features of Vietnam’s South China Sea policy is nationalism, which has a significant double-edged sword effect in that it efficiently leverages Vietnam’s asymmetric advantages and reaps various benefits while also posing potentially significant risks. On the one hand, it has become a powerful tool for assisting Vietnam in its fight against China, such as consolidating legitimacy of the government and enhancing the ability of social mobilization, as well as strengthening China’s policy qualm and enlisting the assistance of the USA and Japan. On the other hand, Vietnam risks losing control of nationalism and incurring the cost of blind exclusion of China. Moreover, the rising nationalism severely limits Vietnam’s ability to reach necessary compromises on the South China Sea dispute, amplifies the negative impacts of a potential arbitration, which is concerning islands and reefs’ sovereignty in the South China Sea initiated by China, on the legitimacy of the Vietnamese regime. As the power rivalry in the South China Sea becomes more intense, the dilemma of Vietnam’s nationalistic South China Sea policy will be more obvious.
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Notes
- 1.
International Crisis Group. (2016). Stirring up the South China Sea (IV): oil in troubled waters. Asia Report (275), p. 20.
- 2.
Gac Ma soldiers-immortal monument in Vietnamese people’s hearts. VNA. (2021, May 13). https://zh.vietnamplus.vn/GacMasoldiers-immortalmonumentinVietnamesepeople’shearts/139286.vnp.
- 3.
Li Chunxia. (2014) Nan hai wen ti zhong de yue nan min zu zhu yi [The South China Sea dispute and Vietnamese nationalism]. Tai Ping Yang Xue Bao [Pacific Journal] (7), pp. 43–44.
- 4.
《黄沙长沙海域上的 “活界碑”》, Vietnam+. (2020, July 5). https://zh.vietnamplus.vn/黄沙长沙海域上的活界碑/119543.vnp.
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《旅外越侨心系祖国》, Vietnam+. (2018, December 16). https://zh.vietnamplus.vn/旅外越侨心系祖国/89741.vnp.
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Lan Yao (2018). Yue nan nan hai wen ti de dui wai xuan chuan lu jing ji qi ying xiang tan xi [Vietnam’s propaganda on the South China Sea issue and its impacts]. Tai Ping Yang Xue Bao [Pacific Journal] (9), p. 87.
- 7.
Liu Xinghong (2019). Yue nan zai nan hai wen ti shang de yu lun xuan chuan [Vietnam’s propaganda on the South China Sea issue]. Guo Ji Yan Jiu Can Kao [International Studies Reference] (4), p. 35.
- 8.
Li Chunxia (2014). Nan hai wen ti zhong de yue nan min zu zhu yi [The South China Sea dispute and Vietnamese nationalism]. Tai Ping Yang Xue Bao [Pacific Journal] (7), p. 42.
- 9.
PM Nguyen Tan Dung in Manila: Vietnam to defend sovereignty. Embassy of Vietnam in the US. (2014, May 22). http://vietnamembassy-usa.org/news/2014/05/pm-nguyen-tan-dung-manila-vietnam-defend-sovereignty.
- 10.
Li Chunxia. (2014). Nan hai wen ti zhong de yue nan min zu zhu yi [The South China Sea dispute and Vietnamese nationalism]. Tai Ping Yang Xue Bao [Pacific Journal] (7), pp. 43–44.
- 11.
Zeng Yong. (2016). Nan hai ‘981’ zuan jing ping tai chong tu zhe she de yue nan nan hai zheng ce [Vietnam’s SCS policy reflected by the ‘981’ oil rig crisis in the SCS]. Dang Dai Ya Tai [Journal of Contemporary Asia–Pacific Studies] (1), p. 133.
- 12.
Li Dalu. (2020). Min zu zhu yi, guo nei zheng zhi quan li jie gou bian qian yu nan hai zheng duan guo dui hua dui chong cha yi [Nationalism, changes in domestic political power structure and differences in ASEAN claimant states’ hedging strategy towards China]. Dang Dai Ya Tai [Journal of Contemporary Asia–Pacific Studies] (2), pp. 118–120.
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Zhang Mingliang. (2017). “Nan hai wen ti hua” de yue nan wai jiao [Vietnam’s foreign policy based on the South China Sea issue]. Dong Nan Ya Yan Jiu [Southeast Asian Studies] (1), p. 28.
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《旅外越侨心系祖国》, Vietnam+. (2018, December 16). https://zh.vietnamplus.vn/旅外越侨心系祖国/89741.vnp.
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Wai mei: nan hai tiao shi yuan yu yue nan gong chan dang zhuan yi guo nei mao dun [Foreign media: the tensions in the SCS because of the CPV turned domestic disputes]. Ta Kung Pao (2014, May 15). http://news.takungpao.com/world/exclusive/2014-05/2478161.html; Dee Woo. (2011, July 21). Why a war between China and Vietnam is inevitable. Insider. http://www.businessinsider.com/sino-vietnamese-south-china-sea-warblood-oil-and-american-interest-the-inevitable-2011-7.
- 16.
2 yue, 311 sou yue nan yu chuan qin ru zhong guo da lu ji hai nan dao hai yu-yue nan yu chuanhai nan fei fa huo dong qing kuang bao gao (2) [February, 311 Vietnamese fishing boats illegally entered into the waters of mainland China and Hainan Island-report of Vietnamese fishing boats’ illegal activity]. Nan hai zhan lue tai shi gan zhi [South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative]. (2020, March 2). http://www.scspi.org/zh/dtfx/1583116222.
- 17.
Vietnam has a tendency to align itself militarily with the United States over territorial disputes, and if there is political turmoil, a pro-U.S. regime may emerge as a result. And its sphere of influence radiates to Laos and Cambodia in the South Central Peninsula, which will raise the uncertainty of the situation around China. See Gao Cheng. (2014, May 26). Nan hai wei ji bei hou de zhong guo hai yang zheng ce tiao zheng [Adjustment of China’s marine policy in the context of the SCS crisis]. FT Chinese. http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001056398?page=full.
- 18.
Le Hong Hiep. (2015). Vietnam’s alliance politics in the South China Sea. Trends in Southeast Asia (6), p. 9.
- 19.
Li Dalu. (2020). Min zu zhu yi, guo nei zheng zhi quan li jie gou bian qian yu nan hai zheng duan guo dui hua dui chong cha yi [Nationalism, changes in domestic political power structure and differences in ASEAN claimant states’ hedging strategy towards China]. Dang Dai Ya Tai [Journal of Contemporary Asia–Pacific Studies] (2), p. 113.
- 20.
Jason Morris-Jung. (2014, July 30). Reflections on the oil rig crisis: Vietnam’s domestic opposition grows. ISEAS Perspective (43).
- 21.
Kinh Doanh. (2014, July 28). TS Nguyễn Đức Thành: Giàn khoan Hải Dương 981 làm mất 0.7% GDP. DANTRI. https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/ts-nguyen-duc-thanh-gian-khoan-hai-duong-981-lam-mat-07-gdp-1407084629.htm.
- 22.
Phuong Hoang. (2019). Domestic protests and foreign policy: An examination of anti-China protests in Vietnam and Vietnamese policy towards China regarding the South China Sea. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs 6(1), pp. 17–20.
- 23.
Le Hong Hiep. (2018, March 29). The belt and road initiative in Vietnam: Challenges and prospects. ISEAS Perspective (18); Jessica C. Liao and Ngoc-Tram Dang. (2020). The nexus of security and economic Hedging: Vietnam’s strategic response to Japan–China infrastructure financing competition. The Pacific Review 33(3), 669–696.
- 24.
Thomas C. Schelling, translated by Mao Ruipeng. (2017). Arms and Influence. Shanghai: Shanghai People’s Publishing House, p. 4.
- 25.
Kenneth N. Waltz, translated by Xin Qiang and proofread by Su Changhe. (2017). Theory of International Politics. Shanghai: Shanghai People’s Publishing House, p. 210.
- 26.
Cheng Hanping. (2012). Yue nan hai yang fa zhan yu an quan zhan lue [Vietnam’s maritime development and security strategy]. Beijing: Yi Wen Publishing Military, p. 205.
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Thuy T Do. (2017). ‘Firm in principles, flexible in strategy and tactics’: Understanding the logic of Vietnam’s China policy. Asian Journal of Comparative Politics 2(1), 27–29.
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《越南希望各国维护东海和平、稳定、安全环境, 恪守法律至上原则》, Vietnam+. (2021, April 29). https://zh.vietnamplus.vn/越南希望各国维护东海和平稳定安全环境恪守法律至上原则/138726.vnp.
- 29.
William Choong. (2021, May 4). Vietnam and the great powers: Agency amid amity and enmity. ISEAS Perspective (62), p. 7.
- 30.
Lye Liang Fook and Ha Hoang Hop. (2018, August 31). Vietnam’s responses to China’s maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea. ISEAS Perspective (50), p. 7.
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Vietnam: Nomination of Arbitrators and Conciliators under Annexes V and VII of the Convention. UN. (2020, May 15). https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/CN/2020/CN.168.2020-Eng.pdf.
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Carlyle A. Thayer. (2016). Vietnam’s strategy of ‘cooperating and struggling with China over maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs 3(2), pp. 200–220.
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Zhao Weihua. (2020). Yue nan zai nan hai xin dong xiang yu zhong yue guan xi zou shi [New trends of Vietnam’s activity in the SCS and Sino-Vietnam relations]. Bian Jie Yu Hai Yang Yan Jiu [Journal of Boundary and Ocean Studies] (1), p. 107.
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Le Hong Hiep. (2019, April 8). Vietnam’s position on the South China Sea code of conduct. ISEAS Perspective (22).
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Luo, X. (2022). The Double-Edged Sword Effect of Vietnam’s Nationalistic South China Sea Policy—A Chinese Perspective. In: Peng, N., Ngeow, CB. (eds) Populism, Nationalism and South China Sea Dispute. Contributions to International Relations. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-1453-9_4
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