Brazil–China Relations: Contestation, Adaptation, or Transformation?

Abstract

Brazil–China relations have entered a new phase in which the mutual distrust generated after the election of far-right, pro-US Jair Bolsonaro gives way to a more pragmatic agenda. This shift was never a linear one, with alternating moments of ideological contestation of China and adaptation of Bolsonaro’s anti-China discourse to the demands of domestic interest groups. Using quantitative methods for foreign policy analysis to examine the degree of interaction between Brazil–China and Brazil–US, this study finds that between 1995 and 2020 Brazil–China relations intensified and diversified during both left and right-oriented Brazilian governments. Although until 2008 Brazil and China became closer to each other when Brazil–US relations were comparatively less intense, Brazil–China and Brazil–US trade evolved in a similar direction over almost the entire period of analysis. Three determinants indicate this transformation of Brazil–China relations over the past 25 years: the expansion of Brazil’s diplomatic network in China, the growth of bilateral trade and investment, and the convergence between Brazil and China in global governance. This study concludes that it is misleading to look at Brazil–China relations from the single prism of a government’s political orientation, and that Brazil–China relations under Bolsonaro could permanently shift from one of ideology-based contestation to one of pragmatic adaptation without necessarily depending on, nor precluding, Brazil’s relations with the US.