Abstract
We propose a coupled metapopulation reaction-diffusion model to explain the propagation of the COVID-19 over an island country such as the Philippines. In the main islands, only susceptible, exposed, and asymptomatic individuals are traveling. The model takes into account the mean daily movement and the transfers and is parametrized using data on the confirmed cases and deaths from the Philippines. To proceed, we set up the system of partial and ordinary differential equations whereby the basic reproduction number, \(\mathcal {R}_0\), is obtained. Next, we simulate the spatial spread of COVID-19 during the first 140 days of infection using a combination of level-set and finite difference methods. Afterward, scenarios of lockdown and unlockdown were studied. Our results displayed a remarkably close similarity to what happened in the Philippines during its first 140 days.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by DOST-PCHRD under the project Understanding COVID-19 Pandemic Situation in Caraga Region through Epidemiological Models and Resiliency Studies (UnCOVER) 2020. YM is funded by the Agence National de la Recherche and Région Hauts-de-France, projet Space-covid ANR Résilience.
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Arcede, J.P., Basañez, R.C., Mammeri, Y. (2022). Hybrid Modeling of COVID-19 Spatial Propagation over an Island Country. In: Srinivas, R., Kumar, R., Dutta, M. (eds) Advances in Computational Modeling and Simulation. Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-7857-8_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-7857-8_7
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