Scenario Analysis and the Classical View of Antarctic Geopolitics

Abstract

In this chapter, we explore how the scenarios constructed in Chap. 8 help us think about Antarctic geopolitics, conceived as the intersection between power, authority, and space, in rivalry between states. We suggest that viewing Antarctic geopolitics through this lens can assist in closing some important conceptual gaps in international law and institutionalist perspectives on Antarctic governance. We examine the intersections between spatial ordering, authority, and power in the subtle rivalry between states in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Our scenarios illustrate how projection of power may influence the future of the ATS—both globally, from great power competition, and regionally, from simmering rivalries in the Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic. We suggest that the concept of balance of power might usefully be viewed not simply as an adversarial relationship, but also in associational terms, with its potential for founding a just equilibrium between states. In turn, this just equilibrium can enliven the authority of enabling institutions (such as the ATS) and international law. We also highlight how spatial ordering of areas in, below and above Antarctica is subject to significant tensions due to ambiguities in interaction between the Law of the Sea Convention, the Antarctic Treaty, and treaties governing outer space.