Cost–Benefit Analysis of Yellow-Label Vehicles Elimination Policy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Abstract

Cost–benefit analysis is an important means for policy formulation, implementation and adjustment. The study presents a cost–benefit analysis of the policy to eliminate yellow-label vehicles in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. It estimates the costs and environmental and health benefits of scrappage subsidy program and ban program under the baseline scenario and the controlled scenario, compares results between the two programs and analyzes the economic impact of scrappage subsidy program. It calculates the costs based on the social cost method, the environmental benefits based on the emission factor method and air quality model, the health benefits based on method of environmental health assessment, and the economic and social benefits based on the input–output method. The results show the policy played an important role in reducing pollutant emissions and improving environmental quality in the region during 2008–2015. It reduced the concentration of NO_x by 2.5% and PM_2.5 by 0.84% in Beijing, 3.2% and 1.15% in Tianjin and 7.98% and 0.78% in Hebei, respectively. The net benefits derived from scrappage subsidy program reached 20.34 billion yuan and from ban program 92.722 billion yuan, and totaled 113.06 billion yuan. The policy also exerted a positive impact on the macro economy. It approximately increased the vehicle consumption by 182.25 billion yuan, total output 829.01 billion yuan, gross domestic product 234.42 billion yuan, and residents’ income 981.0 billion yuan, and created about 14.2 million jobs.