Abstract
Through the experiences of the Great 1994 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake and the Great 2011 East Japan earthquake, it has been important for local governments to build the comprehensive evacuation program on a large earthquake occurrence in near future. According to the experts’ forecast, huge earthquakes will occur around the coast areas of Pacific Ocean in Japan in near future. Therefore, it is indispensable to give appropriate information and knowledge on human behavior for the evacuation time. It is also necessary to urge the residents to select rational behaviors. Therefore, a new methodology based on behavior-oriented agent system should be developed to show our community activities. In this study, the production rules of each agent were constructed due to the expected activities based on the questionnaire survey. Next, by using the set of production rules composed of such data, multi-agent system models were built for analyses on both the evacuative behavior and the behavior of return trips to home during a hypothetical large-scaled earthquake. The simulations were tried by using specific data including those of the Person Trip Survey. It comes to the conclusion that the human behaviors during the earthquake were simulated by multi-agent system model and as a result, the appropriate evacuation method was discussed and the possibility of the return home was found in view of the conditions of the roads and the human attributes.
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Acknowledgement
The author is grateful to Prof. Toru Hagiwara and Prof. Kenetsu Uchida in Hokkaido university for helpful discussions. The author wishes to acknowledge Dr. Katia Andrade for her help in interpreting the significance of the results of this study. The author also gratefully acknowledges the work of past members of the laboratory, Ms. Ishiguro, Mr. Negishi, Mr. Sasaki et al. in Hokkaido university.
Finally the author writes down that there was the quotation from the existing paper in Journal of the EASTS, the reference described below (Kagaya et al. 2005) about this paper partly.
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Kagaya, S. (2022). Multi-Agent Simulation for Prediction of Human Behavior During a Hypothetical Earthquake. In: Higano, Y., Kiminami, L., Ishibashi, K. (eds) New Frontiers of Policy Evaluation in Regional Science. New Frontiers in Regional Science: Asian Perspectives, vol 52. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-4501-3_11
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-4501-3_11
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