Forecasting Agricultural Production as a Tool for Effective Industry Management (On the Example of the Chuvash Republic)

Abstract

The article presents a forecast for the development of agriculture in the Chuvash Republic until 2022 according to three scenarios: optimistic, probabilistic and pessimistic. Agriculture occupies a special position in the region's economy and is a backbone industry. The share of agriculture in the gross regional product is 9%, which is noticeably higher than in other regions of the country, and the share of residents living in rural areas is 36.6%. Structurally, the agriculture of the Chuvash Republic is quite balanced. During the study period from 2010 to 2019 significant positive shifts in the industry can be noted. Thus, the production of basic agricultural products increased 1.93 times, and the gross harvest of basic agricultural crops increased 2.16 times. However, despite the positive trends, problem areas remain in certain areas. The production of basic livestock products during the study period decreased by 135.6 thousand tons; the fleet of basic types of equipment in agricultural organizations decreased by 1.97 times; livestock population decreased by 147.3 thousand heads. In order to predict future changes in the industry, the authors, based on the dynamics of indicators for 2010–2019, characterizing agricultural production in the Chuvash Republic, and using the Excel program, proposed three options for the development of the situation for 2020–2022. As studies have shown, pessimistic and probabilistic scenarios of sustainable functioning are more likely to be implemented, which requires immediate corrective measures for effective management of the industry, in particular, in particular, by creating a single “Chuvash Center for the Development of Rural Areas”.