Abstract
We study the spatio-temporal autocorrelation of the reported measles cases in Baguio City, Philippines from 2010–2018 by utilizing Moran’s I statistic. Using cluster analysis, we construct a disease map by overlaying hot spots for the years 2010, 2014, and 2018. We reject the null hypothesis of spatial randomness based on clustering of the identified hot spots. The number of measles cases in the city is therefore represented by a positive spatial autocorrelation. We also assess the fit of a time-series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (TSIR) model in R in the tsiR package for the analysis of infectious disease time-series data.
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Notes
- 1.
Codes are publicly available on GitHub (www.github.com/adbecker/tsiR).
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Dr. Donna Tubera–Panes, Medical Officer IV at the Office of Baguio Health Department, and the anonymous reviewers for their invaluable suggestions and comments.
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Addawe, R., Angeles, G.M., Balolong, M. (2021). Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Measles Cases in Baguio City, Philippines from 2010–2018. In: Mohd, M.H., Misro, M.Y., Ahmad, S., Nguyen Ngoc, D. (eds) Modelling, Simulation and Applications of Complex Systems. CoSMoS 2019. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, vol 359. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2629-6_15
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