Abstract
The Chapter looks into the current challenges for Qatar’s presence at the natural gas markets that were caused by the US shale revolution, beginning of the global energy transition, COVID-19 pandemic and the existing physical threats to the sustainability of oil and gas exports from the Gulf region. The study will argue that the evolution of market fundamentals under the influence of these factors shifted critical accents in the notion of Qatar’s energy security. The oversupply existing in the markets since 2019 and emergence of new non-Gulf exporters has changed the situation at the regional gas markets in favor of consumers who can now diversify the source of their supplies and be less reliant on the Gulf exporters. Under these circumstances, the sustainability of gas exports from the Gulf is no longer the element of the security of supply, but the security of demand. Now that the LNG consumers have access to the alternative suppliers, it is Qatar and other natural gas producers of the Gulf that have to literally fight for their place in the market. The key research question of this Chapter is about the depth of impact of the above-mentioned market changes on Qatar’s natural gas sector and the geopolitics of Qatar’s LNG exports. Amongst all, the text is discussing those measures that were taken by Qatar to address the emerging challenges. In terms of the time scope, the chapter covers the last 8 years (since 2012) when the results of the US shale revolution started seriously affecting the global economy.
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Notes
- 1.
In terms of per capita energy consumption, Qatar is almost twice as high as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and KSA, which ranked second, third and fourth in the region in 2018 (BP, 2020, pp. 8, 12).
- 2.
Swing producer/swing supplier is a supplier with large spare producing capacities that can affect the situation at the markets through the change in commodity supply. See https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/defining-the-swing-producer/.
- 3.
According to the initial plans, Qatar was supposed to stick to the principle of equal distancing in its exports policy supplying the US, Europe and Asia with LNG in equal proportions. See Piet and Wright (2016, p. 164).
- 4.
As defined by Encyclopedia Britannica shale gas is “a natural gas obtained from sheetlike formations of shale, frequently at depths exceeding 1,500 m (5,000 feet). Shales are fine-grained sedimentary rocks consisting of silt- and clay-sized particles that were laid down hundreds of millions of years ago as organic-rich mud at the bottom of ancient seas and tidal flats. … [The shale gas] diffuses at an extremely slow rate and must be extracted through unconventional means. The most productive method is usually horizontal drilling through the shale seam, followed by hydraulic fracturing … of the rock by the injecting of fluid at extremely high pressure”. During the 1990s and 2000s, the active development of fracking technologies in the US substantially increased the volume of natural gas available for the American economy turning the country in one of the important natural gas exporters in the 2010s. See https://www.britannica.com/science/shale-gas.
- 5.
US shale revolution—a term marking the beginning of the active use of the combination of hydraulic fracturing, horizonal mining and seismic technologies that allowed the US substantially increase the production of shale oil and gas in the late 2000s–2010s subsequently turning this country in one of the largest producers and exporters of hydrocarbons.
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Kozhanov, N. (2021). Navigating Troubled Waters: Geopolitics of Qatar Natural Gas in the Age of Shale Revolution and COVID Pandemic. In: Zweiri, M., Al Qawasmi, F. (eds) Contemporary Qatar. Gulf Studies, vol 4. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1391-3_11
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