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Road Traffic Safety and Differences in Regional Economic Development: Evidence from Random Effects Model and Shapley Value Decomposition

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Road Safety in China

Abstract

To investigate the relationship between differences in regional economic development and road traffic safety, this paper used data on traffic accidents in China for the 2007–2010 period in conjunction with a random effects (RE) model and Shapley value decomposition method to analyze the mechanisms by which gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population, and vehicle- and road-related factors affect the number of traffic accidents, number of injured persons, and number of fatalities and examined the relative contributions of these factors and their dynamic trends. This paper discovered that GDP per capita and road mileage have a positive influence on the reduction in traffic accidents, while vehicle and population factors tend to increase the probability of traffic accidents; in Eastern China, GDP per capita had a negative influence on the number of persons killed or injured in traffic accidents; in Western China, GDP per capita had no significant influence on the reduction in deaths and injuries resulting from accidents. The Shapley value decomposition results revealed that vehicle- and road-related factors are the chief factors affecting number of traffic accidents and number of persons injured and that GDP per capita has a major effect on the number of deaths in road accidents; notably, this effect increases with time. Accordingly, in economically well-developed Eastern China, the establishment of an intangible infrastructure consisting of laws and regulations, medical services, and driver’s education, etc. has been very effective in improving road traffic safety. In the case of less-developed Western China, extensive infrastructure development and improved motor vehicle safety have the largest positive impact on traffic safety.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Professor Shoufeng Huang from Xiamen University, China for his constructive suggestions and advice.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Studies of Hong Kong, Macao and Pearl River Delta, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

    Yanyan Li

  2. Center for Studies of Hong Kong, Macao and Pearl River Delta, Institute of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Development Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

    Guangnan Zhang

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  1. Yanyan Li
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  1. Center for Studies of Hong Kong, Macao and Pearl River Delta, Institute of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Development Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

    Guangnan Zhang

  2. Center for Studies of Hong Kong, Macao and Pearl River Delta, Institute of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Development Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

    Qiaoting Zhong

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Li, Y., Zhang, G. (2021). Road Traffic Safety and Differences in Regional Economic Development: Evidence from Random Effects Model and Shapley Value Decomposition. In: Zhang, G., Zhong, Q. (eds) Road Safety in China. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-0701-1_4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-0701-1_4

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