Abstract
The likelihood of a diagnosis in a patient is directly related to the likelihood of that diagnosis in the general population. Rare diagnoses occur rarely and common diagnoses occur commonly. This is why every medical student has heard the saying, “when you hear hoofbeats, think horses not zebras.” This sage advice (albeit not applicable in Africa) reminds students to consider the pretest probability or base rate of a disease.
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Morgenstern, J. (2021). Base Rate Neglect. In: Raz, M., Pouryahya, P. (eds) Decision Making in Emergency Medicine. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-0143-9_10
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-0143-9_10
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