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OLR Anomaly and Tidal Amplitude Irregularities (Tai) as Short-Term Earthquake Precursors—A Study of Doublet Earthquakes (1990–2010)

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Seismic Hazards and Risk

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering ((LNCE,volume 116))

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Abstract

Pair of earthquakes occurred with similar focal mechanism is called doublet earthquakes. Both earthquakes have their focal region around 100 km diameter and the rupture zone intersect each other. The time interval between the two earthquakes is expressively small compared to the time span needed for the accumulation of strain released during the first event. Anomalous variations in OLR flux above + 2σ significant level were observed 3 to 30 days before the occurrence of big earthquakes. From the analysis of Kuril doublet earthquakes, the OLR flux index increases with the magnitude. For M8.3 earthquakes, the cumulative OLR index was 4.608, and for M8.1 earthquake, the cumulative OLR index was 4.297. Anomalous variations along the seismically vulnerable region may be due to the radon gas emanation from the interior of the Earth. Increase in tectonic activity might have been triggered by the irregularities observed in M2 component of solid Earth tides during a particular lunar phase. These tidal amplitude irregularities (TAI) affect the rotational speed of Earth in order to conserve the angular momentum of the Earth–Sun–Moon system, which in turn affects the movement of tectonic plates. From the analysis of doublet earthquakes occurred across the globe between 1990 and 2010, it was found that the TAI varies between 15 and 40%. Thus, the authors concluded that OLR anomaly and TAI can be used as a short-term earthquake forecasting tool.

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Acknowledgements

We greatly indebted to Ministry of Earth Sciences for financial assistance (Project No: MoES/P.O (seismo)/1(343)/2018). The authors would thank to acknowledge NOAA for making OLR data available to the user community.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics, SASTRA Deemed To be University, 613 401, Thanjavur, Tamil Nadu, India

    N. Venkatanathan, M. Senthil Kumar & Ramya Jeyaraman

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  1. N. Venkatanathan
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  2. M. Senthil Kumar
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  3. Ramya Jeyaraman
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to N. Venkatanathan .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Guwahati, Assam, India

    T. G. Sitharam

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Mangalore, Karnataka, India

    Sreevalsa Kolathayar

  3. Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India

    Mukat Lal Sharma

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Venkatanathan, N., Senthil Kumar, M., Jeyaraman, R. (2021). OLR Anomaly and Tidal Amplitude Irregularities (Tai) as Short-Term Earthquake Precursors—A Study of Doublet Earthquakes (1990–2010). In: Sitharam, T.G., Kolathayar, S., Sharma, M.L. (eds) Seismic Hazards and Risk. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol 116. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-9976-7_32

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-9976-7_32

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