Skip to main content

Solar Cycle Forecasting

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
The Chaotic Solar Cycle

Part of the book series: Atmosphere, Earth, Ocean & Space ((AEONS))

  • 332 Accesses

Abstract

In this chapter we discuss several methods for forecasting solar activity on different time scales. The solar radiation and particle emission influences on the space around Earth, the Earth’s magnetosphere, the Earth’s atmosphere, and can be harmful for satellites and manned spacecraft missions and disrupt communication systems. In extreme cases even power lines on the Earth’s surface are perturbed or can become disrupted.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 119.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 159.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 159.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    There are also other influences that contribute to space climate such as our galactic neighborhood.

  2. 2.

    Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

  3. 3.

    Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) space flight experiment.

  4. 4.

    Launched Feb. 11, 2010.

  5. 5.

    Form: jsocs.stanford.edu.

  6. 6.

    Brajsa, R., Verbanac, G., Bandic, M., Hanslmeier, A., Skokic, I., and Sudar, D. On the minimum - maximum method for prediction of the solar cycle amplitude, submitted to Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2020.

  7. 7.

    Launch: 2006.

References

  1. Bain H, Onsager T, Balch C, Steenburgh R, Carr C, Biesecker D, Adamson E (2019) Solar energetic particle forecasting: current capabilities and future directions from a NOAA space weather prediction center perspective. In: Solar heliospheric and interplanetary environment (SHINE 2019), p 239

    Google Scholar 

  2. Reikard G (2018) Forecasting space weather over short horizons: revised and updated estimates 62:62–69

    Google Scholar 

  3. Krivova NA, Vieira LEA, Solanki SK (2010) Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum. J Geophys Res (Space Phys) 115(A12):A12112

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Feigelson ED, Babu GJ, Caceres GA (2018) Autoregressive times series methods for time domain astronomy. Frontiers Phys 6:80

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  5. Bobra MG, Hoeksema JT, Sun X, HMI Magnetic Field Team (2011) SHARP: space-weather HMI active region patches. In: SDO-3: solar dynamics and magnetism from the interior to the atmosphere, p 17

    Google Scholar 

  6. Gleissberg W (1962) Untersuchungen an drei achizigjährigen Zyklen der Sonnentätigkeit. Mit 3 Textabbildungen 55:153

    Google Scholar 

  7. Frick P, Galyagin D, Hoyt DV, Nesme-Ribes E, Schatten KH, Sokoloff D, Zakharov V (1997) Wavelet analysis of solar activity recorded by sunspot groups. Astron Astrophys 328:670–681

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. Wilson OC (1978) Chromospheric variations in main-sequence stars. Astrophys J 226:379–396

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  9. Frick P, Baliunas SL, Galyagin D, Sokoloff D, Soon W (1997) Wavelet analysis of stellar chromospheric activity variations. Astrophys J 483(1):426–434

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  10. Saar SH, Brandenburg A (1998) Time evolution of the magnetic activity cycle period: results for an expanded stellar sample. In: American astronomical society meeting abstracts. American astronomical society meeting abstracts, vol 193, p 44.04

    Google Scholar 

  11. Wright NJ, Newton ER, Williams PKG, Drake JJ, Yadav RK (2018) The stellar rotation-activity relationship in fully convective M dwarfs. Mon Notices 479(2):2351–2360

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Guinan EF, Ribas I (2002) Our changing sun: the role of solar nuclear evolution and magnetic activity on earth’s atmosphere and climate. In: Montesinos B, Gimenez A, Guinan EF (eds) The evolving sun and its influence on planetary environments. Astronomical society of the pacific conference series, vol 269, p 85

    Google Scholar 

  13. Schrijver JC, Siscoe GL (2010) Evolving Solar Activity and the Climates of Space and Earth. Heliophysics

    Google Scholar 

  14. Benestad RE (2006) Solar activity and earth’s climate, 2nd ed

    Google Scholar 

  15. Rozelot JP (1995) On the chaotic behaviour of the solar activity. Astron Astrophys 297:L45

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Gleissberg W (1951) A forecast of solar activity. J Geophys Res 56:292

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  17. Tlatov AG (2009) The minimum activity epoch as a precursor of the solar activity. Solar Phys 260(2):465–477

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  18. Brajša R, Wöhl H, Hanslmeier A, Verbanac G, Ruždjak D, Cliver E, Svalgaard L, Roth M (2009) On solar cycle predictions and reconstructions. Astron Astrophys 496(3):855–861

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  19. Weiss NO, Cattaneo F, Jones CA (1984) Periodic and aperiodic dynamo waves. Geophys Astrophys Fluid Dyn 30(4):305–341

    Article  ADS  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  20. Benson B, Pan WD, Prasad A, Gary GA, Hu Q (2020) Forecasting solar cycle 25 using deep neural networks. Solar Phys 295(5):65

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  21. Kennel MB, Brown R, Abarbanel HDI (1992) Determining embedding dimension for phase-space reconstruction using a geometrical construction 45(6):3403–3411

    Google Scholar 

  22. Grassberger P, Procaccia I (1983) Measuring the strangeness of strange attractors. Phys D Nonlinear Phenom 9(1–2):189–208

    Article  ADS  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  23. Hanslmeier A, Brajša R (2010) The chaotic solar cycle. I. Analysis of cosmogenic \(^{14}\)C-data. Astron Astrophys, 509:A5

    Google Scholar 

  24. Kurths J, Ruzmaikin AA (1990) On forecasting the sunspot numbers. Solar Phys 126(2):407–410

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  25. Calvo RA, Ceccato HA, Piacentini RD (1995) Neural network prediction of solar activity. Astrophys J 444:916

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Arnold Hanslmeier .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Hanslmeier, A. (2020). Solar Cycle Forecasting. In: The Chaotic Solar Cycle. Atmosphere, Earth, Ocean & Space. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-9821-0_9

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-9821-0_9

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore

  • Print ISBN: 978-981-15-9820-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-15-9821-0

  • eBook Packages: Physics and AstronomyPhysics and Astronomy (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics