Mainstreaming CCA-DRVRM Using Probabilistic Multi-scenario Hazard Maps for Future Resilience in Haiyan-Affected Areas

Abstract

Resilience to future disasters means helping communities and ecosystems successfully adapt to changing climate. To do this, efforts must be made to mainstream climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk and vulnerability reduction and management (DRVRM) into existing local development plans. This requires the use of probabilistic or multi-scenario hazard maps to contextualize adaptive measures to climate change. We describe the methods to prepare probabilistic hazard maps related to severe weather events (i.e., floods, storm surges, and landslides) with climate change projections modeled or simulated through computer simulations using high-resolution, 1:25,000- to 1:10,000-scale digital terrain models, rainfall/climatological data from at least 30 years of historical record, and other necessary input parameters such as soil and land cover type. We provide examples for multi-hazard maps prepared for several Haiyan-affected areas to mainstream CCA-DRVRM in comprehensive land use plans and local development plans of municipalities. This work aims to spread the same methods of preparing climate change-sensitive hazard and risk maps in the entire Philippines as a major input to local development planning to help advance human security in the country.