Skip to main content

Evolving Threat Perceptions and Changing Regional Dynamics in a “Post-GCC” Era

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
The 2017 Gulf Crisis

Part of the book series: Gulf Studies ((GS,volume 3))

  • 475 Accesses

Abstract

Rather than isolating Qatar regionally and internationally, the crisis that began with the blockade of Qatar by four regional states in June 2017 has widened existing cracks in the Gulf into a chasm and has generated unintended consequences that risk inflicting generational damage on its political and social fabric.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 109.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 139.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 139.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    Among the list of conditions were demands that Qatar close down Al Jazeera and other media platforms, close the Turkish military base in the country, scale down ties with Iran, handover “wanted individuals” to the Quartet of states blockading Qatar and pay them reparations and compensation, align political, economic, and security policies with the Saudi-led bloc in the GCC, and agree to compliance audits initially monthly and then annually for a period of twelve years.

  2. 2.

    The Riyadh Agreement covered commitments by all signatories on issues such as ending media campaigns and interference in domestic affairs as well as safeguarding common interests and stopping support for opposition movements—arguably conditions that Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, rather than Qatar, violated in 2017 (see Kabalan 2018: 24).

  3. 3.

    In 2008, for example, the value of UAE exports to Iran amounted to US$13.2 billion while the value of the aggregate exports from the other five GCC states put together came to US$1.58 billion (Habibi 2010: 5).

  4. 4.

    In a television interview with Turkey’s TRT World in July 2017, Khalid bin Mohammed Al Attiyah, then Qatar’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, recalled that the Saudi-Emirati pressure on Qatar began in July 2013, within weeks of HH Sheikh Tamim becoming Emir and Mohammed Mursi’s toppling in Egypt.

References

  • Alarms and Incursions. (1992). Gulf States Newsletter (Vol. 17, No. 447) (Revise the Reference In-Text).

    Google Scholar 

  • Al Jazeera. (2005). Riyadh protests Qatar-UAE Bridge. Al Jazeera Online.

    Google Scholar 

  • Al-Rasheed, M. (2015). Kuwaiti Activists Targeted under GCC Security Pact. Al Monitor.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anon, (2017). Dynastic conflicts and generational shifts exacerbate regional crisis. Gulf States News, 41(1039), 3.

    Google Scholar 

  • Assiri, A.-R. (1990). Kuwait’s foreign policy: City-state in world politics. Boulder: Westview Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Azoulay, R. (2013). The politics of Shi’i merchants in Kuwait. In S. Hertog, G. Luciani, & M. Valeri (Eds.), Business politics in the Middle East (p. 93). London: Hurst & Co.

    Google Scholar 

  • Al bu Said, B.H. (2005). Small states’ diplomacy in the age of globalization: An Omani perspective. In G. Nonneman (Ed.), Analyzing Middle East foreign policies and the relationship with Europe. London: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Butler, D., & LoBianco, T. (2018, May 22). The princes, the president and the fortune seekers. Associated Press. Retrieved from https://apnews.com.

  • Critchlow, A (2006). Saudis demand say in emirates pipeline. International Herald Tribune.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dargin, J (2008). The Dolphin project: The development of a gulf gas initiative. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. NG 22, Oxford Institute of Policy Studies.

    Google Scholar 

  • DeYoung, K., & Nakashima, E. (2017). UAE orchestrated hacking of Qatari government sites, sparking regional upheaval, according to U.S. intelligence officials. Retrieved March 19, 2020, from https://www.washingtonpost.com.

  • Fakhro, M. (1997). The uprising in Bahrain: An assessment. In G. Sick & L. Potter (Eds.), The Persian Gulf at the millennium: Essays in politics, economy, security, and religion (pp. 167–188). London: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Finn, T. (2017). Kuwait to deliver message to Iran on dialogue with Gulf Arab States. Reuters.

    Google Scholar 

  • Freer, C. (2015). The Muslim brotherhood in the emirates: Anatomy of a crackdown. Middle East Eye.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guzansky, Y. (2014). Military cooperation in the Arabian Gulf: The Peninsula shield force put to the test. Middle Eastern Studies, 50(4), 643–644.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Habibi, N. (2010). The impact of sanctions on Iran-GCC economic relations. Brandeis University: Crown Center for Middle East Studies. Middle East Brief No. 45. Massachusetts: Middle East Studies, Brandies University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamdan, S. (2011). Gulf council reaches out to Morocco and Jordan. New York Times.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hatlani, I. (2014). Bahrain between its Backers and the Brotherhood. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

    Google Scholar 

  • Henderson, S. (2017). Meet the two princes reshaping the Middle East. Politico.

    Google Scholar 

  • Howard, N. (2007). Nuclear power for the Gulf States. Center for Advanced Defense Studies, Defense Concepts Series.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kabalan, M. (2018). Kuwait’s GCC Mediation: Incentives and reasons for failure. In Z. Azzam & I. Harb (Eds.), The Gulf crisis at one year: Stalemate becomes a new reality. Washington, DC: Arab Center.

    Google Scholar 

  • Karam, J. (2019). Anthony Zinni, US Envoy tasked with resolving Qatar dispute. The National: Resigns.

    Google Scholar 

  • Karni, A. (2017). Jared Kushner’s Mission Impossible. Politico.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kausch, K. (2018). Jamal Khashoggi in the European Parliament: Mohammed bin Salman’s Saudi Arabia: Reforms, alliances. German Marshall Fund of the United States: Regional Role.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kechichian, J. (2014). The Gulf security pact: Another GCC Dilemma. Al Jazeera Online.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kerr, S. (2014). Dubai keen to capitalize on Iran opening. Financial Times.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kholaif, D. (2013). Oman: No gulf-wide union for us. Al Jazeera Online.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kirkpatrick, D. (2018). Emirati prince flees to qatar, Exposing tensions in UAE. New York Times.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koch, C. (2012). GCC confronted by Dichotomy, Gulf Research Center Note.

    Google Scholar 

  • Luomi, M. (2009). Abu Dhabi’s alternative-energy initiatives: Seizing climate-change opportunities. Middle East Policy, 16(4), 102–117.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meyer, K., Rizzo, H., & Ali, Y. (2007). Changed political attitudes: The case of Kuwait. International Sociology, 22(3), 289–324.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller, R. (2016). Desert Kingdoms to global powers: The rise of the Arab Gulf. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nonneman, G. (1997). The Gulf States and the Iran–Iraq war: Pattern shifts and continuities. In G. Sick & L. Potter (Eds.), The Persian Gulf at the millennium: Essays in politics, economy, security, and religion (pp. 167–192). London: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peel, M., & Hall, C. (2013). Saudi Arabia and UAE prop up Egypt regime with offer of $8bn. Financial Times.

    Google Scholar 

  • Perry, M. (2017). Tillerson and Mattis cleaning up Kushner’s Middle East Mess. The American Conservative.

    Google Scholar 

  • Roberts, D. (2012). Of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Union. E-International Relations.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rossiter, A. (2014). Britain and the development of professional security forces in the Gulf Arab States, 1921–71: Local forces and informal empire (University of Exeter Ph.D thesis), pp. 105–115.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salisbury, P. (2017, October 20). The untold, inside story of the first hack to nearly start a war. Quartz. Retrieved March 19, 2020, from https://qz.com/.

  • Schofield, R. (2011). The crystallization of a complex territorial dispute: Britain and the Saudi-Abu Dhabi borderland, 1966–71. Journal of Arabian Studies, 1(1), 27–51.

    Google Scholar 

  • The Economist. (2018). Why Gulf countries are feuding with Qatar. Retrieved March 19, 2020, from https://www.economist.com.

  • The National. (2014). Kuwait says relations with Iran are ‘excellent’. Retrieved March 20, 2020, from https://www.thenational.ae.

  • Theodoulou, M. (2011). GCC agrees five-year aid plan for Morocco and Jordan. The National.

    Google Scholar 

  • Toth, A. (2005). Trials and Tribulations: Bedouin Losses in the Saudi and Iraqi struggles over Kuwait’s frontiers, 1921–1943. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 32(2), 145–167.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ulrichsen, K. C. (2016). The United Arab Emirates: Power, politics and policymaking. Abingdon: Routledge.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Ulrichsen, K. C. (2017a). Is the GCC worth belonging to? Chatham House.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ulrichsen, K. C. (2017b). Walking the Tightrope: Kuwait, Iran Relations in the Aftermath of the Abdali Affair. Gulf State Analytics.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ulrichsen, K. C. (2018a). The exclusionary turn in GCC politics. Arab Center, Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ulrichsen, K. C. (2018b). The Gulf impasse’s one year anniversary & the changing regional dynamics. Gulf International Forum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Worth, R. (2018). Can Jim Mattis hold the line in Trump’s ‘War Cabinet’? New York Times.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kristian Ulrichsen .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2021 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Ulrichsen, K. (2021). Evolving Threat Perceptions and Changing Regional Dynamics in a “Post-GCC” Era. In: Zweiri, M., Rahman, M.M., Kamal, A. (eds) The 2017 Gulf Crisis . Gulf Studies, vol 3. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8735-1_8

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics