Abstract
Corroboration of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the climatic variability in the Indian subcontinent is mentioned in various studies. In the Indian context, if we observe the rising number of dengue cases, it could be treated as a major cause of health concern for the government of this country. Nowadays, an increasing number of dengue incidences are reported from different Indian states which are leading to unfortunate hospitalization and fatal death of the people. Keeping the context in mind, we have examined the relationship between the ENSO events, inter-annual variability in dengue cases in major states of India and Indian summer monsoonal rainfall (ISMR). In this study, we use Pearson’s product-moment correlation (hereafter PPMC) to find out the interconnections between ‘+ winter ONI’ (OND, NDJ, DJF, and JFM seasons) events, rainfall index for the JJAS season (June, July, August, September) and annual 10 major state-level data of dengue cases index for the past 14 years. It has been observed through the study that the PPMC result between the ‘rainfall index’ and ‘dengue index’ is showing greater variation among different states of the country. Interestingly, we have observed that the correlation result between the ‘+ winter ONI’ and dengue incidence index have (r) value ranging from highly (−) to very high (+) value −0.53 to + 0.83 across the different states.
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Acknowledgements
Data on the total number of reported dengue cases were obtained from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Board (NVBDCB), Government of India. We are indebted to R. C. Dhiman for providing information about sources of rainfall data, and valuable inputs for writing this paper. His paper related to ENSO and Malaria has been observed as a base paper for our study. We are also thankful to NOAA for proving data on ONI climatic indices. The usage of ArcGIS Version 10.2 has been undertaken to construct a geographical correlation map, SPSS Version 22.0 has been used to calculate the PPMC and R to draw the radar graph. At present, Dr. Netrananda Sahu is working as JSPS Postdoc Fellow at DPRI, Kyoto University. We are thankful to JSPS (ID No. P18360), Japan.
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Sahu, N., Mishra, M.M. (2021). Association and Effects of ISMR and El Niño Southern Oscillation on Dengue Outbreaks in India. In: Mishra, R.K., Singh, R.B., Dubey, A. (eds) Sustainable Climate Action and Water Management. Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8237-0_13
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