Abstract
In light of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, we review the history of past pandemics. We draw on existing literature to characterise historical and contemporary infectious agents by their transmission modes and dynamics and their mortality impact. We then give a concise summary of 20 historical pandemics, their origins, spread and impact. Moreover, we reflect on the semantic shifts which the term pandemic has undergone, discuss the role of human mobility and other factors in the worldwide spread of infectious disease, and outline some historical trends in public-health response to pandemics. Finally, we touch on recent pandemic threats such as SARS, MERS, and Ebola, elaborate on their zoonotic origin, and compile some lessons that were drawn from these outbreaks.
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Change history
02 December 2020
Chapter 2 of the book was inadvertently published with incorrect affiliation of the author Lorenz Hilfiker. This has now been corrected.
Notes
- 1.
This is to be distinguished from the infection fatality ratio (IFR), the proportion of infected people which die due to the disease. For diseases with a large number of asymptomatic carriers these two quantities can differ widely, and especially in a historical setting the CFR is often the only one which can be determined with some precision. The CFR is, of course, prone to substantial systematic biases.
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Hilfiker, L., Ganguly, S. (2020). A Review of Pandemics. In: Goyal, M.K., Gupta, A.K. (eds) Integrated Risk of Pandemic: Covid-19 Impacts, Resilience and Recommendations. Disaster Resilience and Green Growth. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-7679-9_2
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