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Time-Varying Probability Distribution Model of High Permeability Wind Power Considering Non-stationary Characteristics

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Recent Developments in Intelligent Computing, Communication and Devices (ICCD 2019)

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 1185))

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Abstract

In order to describe the uncertainty and fluctuation of high permeability wind power more accurately, a time-varying probability distribution model of high permeability wind power considering non-stationary characteristics is proposed. Firstly, based on the statistics of measured data, the objective existence of the time-varying characteristics of the wind power probability distribution, and spatial correlation coefficient is demonstrated. Then, a modeling method of time-varying condition dependent off-line model based on the marginal probability distribution of wind farm and the spatial correlation coefficient matrix of multi-wind farms is proposed. On this basis, an on-line sampling algorithm based on genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo sampling is proposed to build time-varying probability models of high permeability wind power. Finally, based on the actual example, a simulation example is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the model and algorithm.

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References

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Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program (B32722190001); State Grid Corporation of China Program (522722160071).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Grid Gansu Electric Power Research Institute, Lanzhou, 730070, China

    Zhenzhen Zhang, Qiang Zhou, Pengfei Gao, Jin Li, Dingmei Wang & Jianmei Zhang

Authors
  1. Zhenzhen Zhang
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  2. Qiang Zhou
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  3. Pengfei Gao
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  4. Jin Li
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  5. Dingmei Wang
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  6. Jianmei Zhang
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zhenzhen Zhang .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Supply Chain and Information Management (SCM), The Hang Seng University of Hong Kong (HSUHK), Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong

    C. H. WU

  2. Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Siksha ‘O’ Anusandhan University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India

    Srikanta PATNAIK

  3. Information and Communication Engineering, Faculty Automatic Control and Computer Science, University of Oradea, Oradea, Romania

    Florin POPENTIU VLÃDICESCU

  4. School of Human Science and Environment, University of Hyogo, Himeji, Japan

    Kazumi NAKAMATSU

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© 2021 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

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Zhang, Z., Zhou, Q., Gao, P., Li, J., Wang, D., Zhang, J. (2021). Time-Varying Probability Distribution Model of High Permeability Wind Power Considering Non-stationary Characteristics. In: WU, C.H., PATNAIK, S., POPENTIU VLÃDICESCU, F., NAKAMATSU, K. (eds) Recent Developments in Intelligent Computing, Communication and Devices. ICCD 2019. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 1185. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-5887-0_17

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