Abstract
Rice is the dominant food crop of Bangladesh, about 75% of agricultural land is use for production and it contributes 28% of GDP. Aman is one of the main harvest crops and second largest rice crop in the country in respect to the volume of production. The main purpose of this study is to identify the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model by Box-Jenkin’s approach that could be used to forecast the production of Aman Rice in Dhaka Division Bangladesh. The Secondary data were collected for the year 1972–1973 to 2014–2015 from the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) for the purpose of model identification and forecast up-to the year 2035 of the identified model. Data sets are checked for whether it is stationary or not through graphical method, correlogram and unit root test. Thus Box-Jenkins approach is applied for determination of ARIMA model. The best selected Box-Jenkin’s ARIMA model for forecasting the production of Aman Rice is ARIMA (1,1,1). For residual diagnostics correlogram Q-statistic and histogram and normality test were used. The comparison between the original series and forecasted series shows the same manner which indicates the fitted model behaved statistically well and suitable to forecast the production of Aman Rice in Dhaka Division Bangladesh. We have found that the annual production of Aman Rice in Dhaka Division Bangladesh is slightly increasing.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Anonymous: Problem and prospects for suitable intensification of rice production in Bangladesh. Project publication no. 12, TCTTI Dhaka p-1 (1998)
Bhuiyan, N.I., Paul, D.N.R., Jabber, M.A.: Feeding the extra millions by 2025– Challenges for rice research and extension in Bangladesh. National Workshop on Rice Research and Extension in Bangladesh, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur, 29–3 1 January (2002)
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics: Yearbook of agricultural statistics of Bangladesh. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning, Dhaka (2012)
Rahman, N.M.F.: Forecasting of boro rice production in Bangladesh: an ARIMA approach. J. Bangladesh Agric. Univ. 8(1), 103–112 (2010)
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics: The statistical yearbook of Bangladesh, pp. 1–2. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of planning, Dhaka, Agricultural Wing (2015)
George, E.P.B., Gwilym, M.J., Gregory, C.R.: Time series analysis: Time series analysis forecasting & control, 4th edn. Wiley/Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs (1994)
Hamjah, M.A.: Forecasting major fruit crops productions in Bangladesh using Box-Jenkins ARIMA model. J. Econ. Sustain. Dev. 5(7), (2014)
Awal, M.A., Siddique, M.A.B.: Rice production in Bangladesh employing by ARIMA model. Bangladesh J. Agric. Res. 36, 51–62 (2011)
Amin, M., Amanullah, M., Akbar, A.: Time series modeling for forecasting wheat production of Pakistan. J. Anim. Plant Sci. 24(5), 1444–1451 (2014)
Maniha, Z., Time Series, A.: Modeling on GDP of Pakistan. J. Contemp. Issues Bus. Res. 3(4), 200–210 (2014)
Bipasha, M., Bani, C.: Forecasting GDP growth rates of India: an empirical study. Int. J. Econ. Manage. Sci. 1(9), 52–58 (2012)
Siti, R.Y., Maizah, H.A., Lee, C.N., Noryanti, M.: A comparative study on Box-Jenkins and Garch models in forecasting crude oil prices. J. Appl. Sci. 11(17), 1129–1135 (2011)
Rachana, W., Suvarna, M., Sonal, G.: Use of the ARIMA model for forecasting Pigeon Pea production in India. Int. Rev. Bus. Finance. 2(1), 97–102 (2010)
Rahman, N.F.M.: Forecasting of boro rice production in Bangladesh: an ARIMA approach. J. Bangladesh Agric. Univ. 8(1), 103–112 (2010)
Solomon, S.: Forecasting milled rice production in Ghana using Box-Jenkins approach. Int. J. Agric. Manage. Dev. (IJAMAD). (2011)
Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A.: Distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 74(366), 427–481 (1979)
Gujarati, D.N., Porter, D.C., Gunasekar, S.: Basic econometrics: econometric modeling specification and diagnostic testing, 4th edn. Mc Graw Hill International (2003)
Imon, A.H.M.R.: Introduction to regression Time Series and forecasting: Box-Jenkins ARIMA models. Nanita Prokash. (2017)
Jarque, C.M., Bera, A.K.: A test for normality for observations and regression residuals. Int. Stat. Rev. 55, 163–172 (1987)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Hossen, S.M., Hossain, M.T., Chakraborty, A., Ismail, M.T. (2020). Modeling for Prospect of Aman Rice Production in Dhaka Division, Bangladesh. In: Rahman, A. (eds) Statistics for Data Science and Policy Analysis. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-1735-8_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-1735-8_6
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-15-1734-1
Online ISBN: 978-981-15-1735-8
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)