Skip to main content

Managing Climate Risk in a Major Coffee-Growing Region of Indonesia

  • 1003 Accesses

Abstract

Indonesia is currently one of the top four coffee exporting countries in the world. Climate change is projected to cause significant impacts on coffee. Without proper adaptation measures, this will significantly lower the productions. Changes in rainfall and increases in temperature will affect the phenological development that would eventually influence yield and quality of crop including the potential risks of pest and disease attacks. Assessment in Toba, a major coffee-growing region of Indonesia, indicated that in the middle of this century (the 2050s), under climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, suitable areas for coffee production would decrease significantly. The average yield is projected to decrease between 25% and 75% of the current yield. However, the highlands that are currently not suitable for coffee (>1500 m above mean sea level) is projected to become suitable with a higher yield than the current. A significant increase in rainfall during the rainy season and prolonged dry season will also affect coffee phenological development. It will shift the peak of coffee flowering and harvesting seasons in Toba. The severity of the coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) attack will also increase in the future. The current crop management farming practices should be adjusted and improved to adapt to such change.

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Climate scenarios
  • Indonesia
  • Toba region
  • Coffee
  • Climate change adaptation
  • Coffee berry borer

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-981-13-9570-3_5
  • Chapter length: 59 pages
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
eBook
USD   139.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • ISBN: 978-981-13-9570-3
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
Softcover Book
USD   179.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Hardcover Book
USD   179.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Fig. 5.1
Fig. 5.2
Fig. 5.3
Fig. 5.4
Fig. 5.5
Fig. 5.6
Fig. 5.7
Fig. 5.8
Fig. 5.9
Fig. 5.10
Fig. 5.11
Fig. 5.12
Fig. 5.13
Fig. 5.14
Fig. 5.15
Fig. 5.16
Fig. 5.17
Fig. 5.18
Fig. 5.19
Fig. 5.20
Fig. 5.21
Fig. 5.22
Fig. 5.23
Fig. 5.24
Fig. 5.25
Fig. 5.26
Fig. 5.27
Fig. 5.28
Fig. 5.29
Fig. 5.30
Fig. 5.31
Fig. 5.32
Fig. 5.33
Fig. 5.34
Fig. 5.35
Fig. 5.36
Fig. 5.37
Fig. 5.38
Fig. 5.39
Fig. 5.40
Fig. 5.41
Fig. 5.42

References

  • Abdoellah S (2016) Irrigation on coffee plantation. In: Wahyudi T, Pujiyanto M (eds) Coffee: history, botany, production process, processing, downstream products, and partnership systems. Gadjah Mada University Press, Yogyakarta, pp 253–258

    Google Scholar 

  • Amaria W, Harni R (2012) Leaf rust in the planting of coffee and its control. In: Technology innovation for community coffee plantation. Indonesian Spices and Industrial Plants Research Institute, Sukabumi, pp 115–120

    Google Scholar 

  • Bale J, Masters G, Hodkinson I, Awmack C, Bezemer T, Brown V, Butterfield J, Buse A, Coulson J, Farrar J, Good J, Harrington R, Hartley S, Jones T, Lindroth R, Press M, Symrnioudis I, Watt A, Whittaker J (2002) Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Glob Chang Biol 8:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00451.x

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Birch L (1948) The intrinsic rate of natural increase of an insect population. J Anim Ecol 17:15. https://doi.org/10.2307/1605

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • BPS (2016a) Statistics of Karo Regency, Karo. ISSN:2301-8852

    Google Scholar 

  • BPS (2016b) Statistics of Dairi Regency, Dairi. ISSN:2354-578X

    Google Scholar 

  • BPS (2016c) Statistics of Samosir Regency, Samosir. ISSN:2301-976X

    Google Scholar 

  • BPS (2016d) BPS-statistics of Simalungun Regency, Simalungun. ISSN:0215-2339

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown JS, Kenny MK, Whan JH, dan Merriman PR (1995) The effect of temperature on the development of epidemics of coffee leaf rust in Papua New Guinea. J Crop Prot 14(8):671–676

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • CABI (2000) Crop protection compendium. CAB International, Wallingford

    Google Scholar 

  • Cannel MGR (1985) Physiology of the coffee crop. In: Clifford MN, Wilson KC (eds) Coffee: botany, biochemistry, and production of beans and beverage. AVI Publishing Company, Connecticut, pp 108–134. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-6657-1

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Center for Soil Research (1978) National land classification system. Soil Research Center, Bogor

    Google Scholar 

  • Center for Soil Research (1982) National land classification system. Soil Research Center, Bogor

    Google Scholar 

  • Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M, Gedney N, Halloran P, Hinton T, Hughes J, Jones CD, Joshi M, Liddicoat S, Martin G, O'Connor F, Rae J, Senior C, Sitch S, Totterdell I, Wiltshire A, Woodward S (2011) Development and evaluation of an earth-system model- HadGEM2. Geosci Model Dev 4(4):1051–1075

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Crowe TJ (2009) Coffee pests in Africa. In: Wintgnes JN (ed) Coffee: growing, processing, sustainable production, 2nd edn. Willey-VCH Verlag GmbH &Cp. KGaA, Weinheim, pp 425–462. https://doi.org/10.1002/9783527619627

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Damatta FM, Ramalho JDC (2006) Impacts of drought and temperature stress on coffe physiology and production: a review. Braz J Plant Physiol 18(1):55–81. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1677-04202006000100006

    CAS  CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Descroix F, Snoeck J (2012) Environmental factors suitable for coffee cultivation. In: Wintgens JN (ed) Coffee: growing, processing, sustainable production, 2nd Rev edn. Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim. ISBN:978-3-527-33253-3

    Google Scholar 

  • Dingemanse NJ, Kalkman V (2008) Changing temperature regimes have advanced the phenology of Odonata in the Netherlands. Ecol Entomol 33:394–402. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2311.2007.00982.x

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Erdiansyah NP, Soemarno D, Mawardi S (2016) Sidikalang coffee production in North Sumatra. Indonesian Coffee Cocoa Res Inst Newslett 25:10–14

    Google Scholar 

  • Faqih A, Hidayat R, Jadmiko SD, Radini (2016) Historical climate and future climate scenarios in Indonesia: climate modelling and analysis. United Nation Development Program (UNDP), Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK)

    Google Scholar 

  • Funk C, Peterson P, Landsfeld M, Pedreros D, Verdin J, Rowland J, Romero B, Husak G, Michaelsen J, Verdin A (2014) A quasi-global precipitation time series for drought monitoring. Data Ser (832):4. https://doi.org/10.3133/ds832

  • Funk C, Peterson P, Landsfeld M, Pedreros D, Verdin J, Shukla S, Husak G, Rowland J, Harrison L, Hoell A, Michaelsen J (2015) The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations-a new environmental record for monitoring extremes. Sci Data 2:150066. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Gomi T, Nagasaka M, Fukuda T, Higahara H (2007) Shifting of the life cycle and life history traits of the fall webworm in relation to climate change. Entomol Exp Appl 125:179–184. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1570-7458.2007.00616.x

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Haggar J, Barrios M, Bolaños M, Merlo M, Moraga P, Munguia R, Ponce A, Romero S, Soto G, Staver C, de M. F. Virginio E (2011) Coffee agroecosystem performance under full sun, shade, conventional and organic management regimes in Central America. Agrofor Syst 82:285–301. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10457-011-9392-5

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Harni R, Samsudin WA, Indriati G, Soesanthy F, Khaerati ET, Hasibuan AM, Hapsari AD (2015) Technology of pest and disease control on coffee plantation. IAARD Press, Jakarta

    Google Scholar 

  • ICC (2009) Climate change and coffee. International Coffee Council, 103rd session, 23–25 September 2009. http://www.ico.org/documents/icc-103-6-r1e-climate-change.pdf. Accessed 8 Jan 2016

  • Indonesian Coffee and Cocoa Research Center (Puslitkoka) (2013) Practical guidelines for cultivation and maintenance of coffee plants. Indonesian Coffee and Cocoa Research Center, Jember

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Meyer LA (eds)]. IPCC, Geneva, 151 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Jadmiko SD, Murdiyarso D, Faqih A (2017) Bias correction of regional climate model outputs for drought analysis. Indonesian Soil Clim J 41(1):25–36. https://doi.org/10.2017/jti.v41i1.5983

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Jaramillo J, Chabi-Olaye A, Kamonjo C, Jaramillo A, Vega F, Poehling H, Borgemeister C (2009) Thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei: predictions of climate change impact on a tropical insect pest. PLoS One 4:e6487. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006487

    CAS  CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K (2006) Predicting impacts of global warming on population dynamics and distribution of arthropods in Japan. Popul Ecol 48:5–12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-005-0225-0

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K (2007) Pest status of rice and fruit bugs (Heteroptera) in Japan. Glob Chang Biol 13:1586–1595

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Kiritani K (2013) Different effects of climate change on the population dynamics of insects. Appl Entomol Zool 48:97–104. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13355-012-0158-y

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Lan CC, Wintgens JN (2009) Major pests of coffee in the Asia-Pacific region. In: Wintgnes JN (ed) Coffee: growing, processing, sustainable production, 2nd edn. Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH &Cp. KGaA, Weinheim, pp 463–477

    Google Scholar 

  • Lenderink G, Buishand A, Van Deusen W (2007) Estimate of future discharges of the river Rhine using two scenarios methodologies: direct versus delta approach. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:1145–1159. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1145-2007

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Martin GM, Bellouin N, Collins WJ, Culverwell ID, Halloran PR, Hardiman SC, Hinton TJ, Jones CD, McDonald RE, McLaren AJ, O’Connor FM, Roberts MJ, Rodriguez JM, Woodward S, Best MJ, Brooks ME, Brown AR, Butchart N, Dearden C, Derbyshire SH, Dharssi I, Doutriaux-Boucher M, Edwards JM, Falloon PD, Gedney N, Gray LJ, Hewitt HT, Hobson M, Huddleston MR, Hughes J, Ineson S, Ingram WJ, James PM, Johns TC, Johnson CE, Jones A, Jones CP, Joshi MM, Keen AB, Liddicoat S, Lock AP, Maidens AV, Manners JC, Milton SF, Rae JGL, Ridley JK, Sellar A, Senior CA, Totterdell IJ, Verhoef A, Vidale PL, Wiltshire A (2011) The HadGEM2 family of met office unified model climate configurations. Geosci Model Dev 4(3):723–757

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Ministry of Agriculture (2017) Agricultural statistics 2017. Center for Agricultural Data and Information System: Ministry of Agriculture, Jakarta

    Google Scholar 

  • Ministry of Environment (2014) Rescue movement of Lake Toba (GERMADANI). Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta

    Google Scholar 

  • Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, Van Vuuren SP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchel JFB, Nakicennovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823

    CAS  CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Nur AM (2000) Impact of La Nina on Robusta coffee production. Indonesian Coffee Cocoa Res Inst Newslett 16(1):50–58

    Google Scholar 

  • Prastowo B, Karmawati E, Rubijo S, Indrawanto C, Munaro SJ (2010) Coffee cultivation and post-harvest. Indonesian Center for Estate Crops Research and Development, Bogor

    Google Scholar 

  • Pratama SW, Aini FN (2016) Main diseases of coffee plants. In: Coffee. Gadjah Mada University Press, Yogyakarta, p 15

    Google Scholar 

  • PT Perkebunan Nusantara XII (Persero) (2013) Guidelines for managing Arabica coffee plants. PT Perkebunan Nusantara XII (Persero), Surabaya

    Google Scholar 

  • Pujiyanto (2016) Water stress on coffee plant. In: Wahyudi T, Pujiyanto M (eds) Coffee; history, botany, production process, processing, downstream products, and partnership systems. Gadjah Mada University Press, Yogyakarta, pp 382–401

    Google Scholar 

  • Puslitkoka (2013) Practical guidelines for cultivation and maintenance of coffee plants. Indonesian Research Center for Coffee and Cacao, Jember

    Google Scholar 

  • Rahayu DS, Wiryadiputra S (2016) Main insect pest and it’s control. In: Coffee. Gadjah Mada University Press, Yogyakarta

    Google Scholar 

  • Rayner RW (1961) Spore liberation and dispersal of coffee rust Hemileia vastatrix B.et Br. Nature 191:725

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Samsudin, Soesanthy F (2012) Coffee berry borer and its control: technology innovation for community coffee plantation. Indonesian Spices and Industrial Plants Research Institute, Sukabumi, pp 121–130

    Google Scholar 

  • Semangun H (2000) Plantation plant diseases in Indonesia. Gadjah Mada University Press, 835pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Soenarjo (1975) Effect of climate anomaly on coffee production. Indonesian J Biotechnol Res Estate Crops 43(2):79–91

    Google Scholar 

  • Sulistyowati E, Mangoendihardjo S, Wagiman FX (1999) Functional response of parasitoid Cephalonomia stephanoderis Betr. against coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei Ferr.). Coffee Cocoa Res J 15(2):101–108

    Google Scholar 

  • Susilo AW (2008) Resistance of coffee plants (Coffea spp.) from coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei Ferr.). Rev Coffee Cocoa Res 24(1):1–15

    Google Scholar 

  • Syakir M, Surmaini E (2017) Climate change in the context of the coffee production and development system in Indonesia. Agric Res J 36(2):77–90

    Google Scholar 

  • Waller JM (1985) Control of coffee diseases. In: Clifford MN, Willson KC (eds) Coffee: botany, biochemistry and production of beans and beverage. AVI Publishing Company, Connecticut, pp 219–229

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Waller JM, Bigger M, Hillocks RJ (2007) Coffee pests, diseases and their management. CAB International, Wallingford, p 400. ISBN-10: 1 84593 129 7 and ISBN-13: 978 1 84593 129 2

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson KC (1985) Climate and soil. In: Clifford MN, Wilson KC (eds) Coffee: botany, biochemistry, and production of beans and beverage. AVI Publishing Company, Connecticut, pp 97–107

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Wintgens JN (2009) Coffee: growing, processing, sustainable production. 2. Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Cp. KGaA, Weinheim

    Google Scholar 

  • Wiryadiputra (2012) Effectiveness of Cyantraniliprole insecticides on coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei Ferr.) in Arabica coffee. Coffee Cocoa Res J 28:103–114

    Google Scholar 

  • Wiryadiputra S, Tran LK (2008) Indonesia and Vietnam. In: Souza RM (ed) Plant-parasitic nematodes of coffee. Springer, Dordrecht

    Google Scholar 

  • Yahmadi M (1973) Effect of long drought on coffee plantation. Indonesian J Biotechnol Res Estate Crops 41:235–240

    Google Scholar 

  • Yuliasmara F, Suhartono, Hulupi R (2016) Pruning on coffee plants. In: Wahyudi T, Pujiyanto M (eds) Coffee: history, botany, production process, processing, downstream products, and partnership systems. Gadjah Mada University Press, Yogyakarta, pp 195–217

    Google Scholar 

  • Zeng F, Pederson G, Ellsbury M, Davis F (1993) Demographic statistics for the pea aphid (Homoptera: Aphididae) on resistant and susceptible red clovers. J Econ Entomol 86(6):1852–1856

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank for the financial support provided by Rainforest Alliance-UTZ. We also extend our gratitude for BITRA that provided support in conducting survey.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this chapter

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Boer, R. et al. (2020). Managing Climate Risk in a Major Coffee-Growing Region of Indonesia. In: Venkatramanan, V., Shah, S., Prasad, R. (eds) Global Climate Change and Environmental Policy. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9570-3_5

Download citation