Abstract
The Demographic Transition Model of Japan (DTMJ) is designed as a logico-mathematical model, which requires only a few historical data for initial settings to reproduce the demographic transition of Japan. It includes six major factors: population-age structure, fertility, reproduction timing, social capital accumulation, lifespan, and migration. In this chapter, the initial settings and the results of the simulations at standard run are explained. Using only endogenous variables, which are composed of the proximate determinants of fertility and mortality developments, DTMJ successfully reproduces the historical process of the demographic transition of Japan. The result effectively shows the transition occurs from high fertility and mortality in preindustrial society to low fertility and mortality in postindustrial society. It also effectively shows their consequences, such as rapid aging, below replacement level of fertility, and continual population decrease. The results of sensitive runs indicate that the maximum fertility, maximum lifespan, and migration are the keys to control the sustainability of population.
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Notes
- 1.
This table belongs to female population, but it is also used for the population including male for the convenience of simplifying the model structure.
- 2.
This model does not include the effects of historical events such as, disasters, disturbances, war, etc.
- 3.
- 4.
Horiuchi discusses the factors that might have made the longevity extension of Japan faster than many other developed countries in his paper. The factors include rapid economic growth, overlapping epidemiological transitions, dietary patterns, traditional health culture, genetic factors (including ApoE4 allele frequency), and particularly egalitarian distribution of income and wealth (Horiuchi 2010).
- 5.
Around 2005, the trend of TFR has observed a recovery in many developed countries and the “End of ‘Lowest-Low’ Fertility?” was speculated. According to my analysis in case of Japan and Germany, the TFR under aged 29 decreases and TFR over aged 30 increases. This trend does not change until today. The recovery happened at around 2005, when the TFR over aged 30 caught up and went over the TFR under aged 29. This shift of fertility timing was related to the increasing mean age at first marriage since 1974. It has highly corresponded with the extending years at school after aged 15. The prolonged years delays the starting time for dating and the process of finding a potential partner. It increases the unmarried rate at 50 years old and shifts the mean age of first birth to a later age. This also increases the childlessness rate. The same effect has confirmed in the second and higher births order, in concern with the mean age and the maximum level of total fertility rate by birth order. As a result, the probability of multiparity is diminishing. Thus, fertility would be stabilized at a below replacement level in a long term.
- 6.
Different to the European societies, Japan belonged to the early marriage society before Meiji-Ara. In this context, this setting may be not be totally unrealistic.
- 7.
The value of MIGR1544 is given not as % but as the number of migrants (person in population unit). The usual migration rate, which is calculated by the number of migrants divided by the base population, is not adequate, because the relation between them should not be always proportional.
- 8.
If MIGR1544 is −1 person per year, the population (POP1544) decreases from 43.3 at start to 1.15 at ST149 and the run is broken up, for the value of the population turns to minus. That shows the outmigration of working and reproductive population with annually −1% of initial number diminishes the sustainability of population in 150 years.
References
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Hara, T. (2020). Simulation Run for the Demographic Transition in Japan. In: An Essay on the Principle of Sustainable Population. SpringerBriefs in Population Studies(). Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-3654-6_5
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