Abstract
The Demographic Transition (DT) is known as the historical process from high fertility and mortality in preindustrial society to low fertility and mortality in postindustrial society. At first, it is being observed in Western countries but shortly after World War II, Japan is the first country in Asia presenting demographic transition (DT). Nowadays, this process can be found in many other countries of the world. In this chapter, the classical Demographic Transition (DT) and Second Demographic Transition (SDT) are reexamined. And the reasons of why the elucidation of causality to promote demographic transition has been not successful until today are analyzed. Based on these reconsiderations, Japan’s Demographic Transition (JDT) is observed by using historical data, such as total population, Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Crude Death Rate (CDR), Natural Growth Rate (NGR), and the historical process of JDT is clarified in compare with DT and SDT. In addition, using Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Life Expectancy (LE), and Net Reproduction Rate (NRR), the basic causalities to promote the process are analyzed and finally, a causal model of JDT is postulated.
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Notes
- 1.
As aging rate (a proportion of people aged 65 years or older among the total population) increases, the average mortality risk becomes higher, even though the average lifespan is extended. For example, in 2017, the aging rate of Japan was 27.7%, the crude death rate (CDR) was 10.8‰ and the average Life Expectancy (LE) of women was 87.26 years. In contrast, the LE of women in Egypt was 74.08 years in the period 2015–2020 but the aging rate was just 5.1% in 2015, and the CDR was just 5.7‰ in 2017 (IPSS 2019).
- 2.
As aging rate increases, the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) based on the total population becomes lower in comparison with the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) based on the women population between aged 15-49. For example, in 2017, the aging rate of Japan was 27.7%, the CBR was 7.6‰, and the TFR was 1.43. In the case of Canada, in 2017 the aging rate was 12.2%, the CBR was 10.6‰, and the TFR was 1.49 (IPSS 2019).
- 3.
He indicated the first 4 factors are the most important factor in explaining variations in fertility levels among populations (UNFPA 2019).
- 4.
For example, Rice Riot (1918): the soaring price of rice caused extreme economic hardship and a series of disturbances throughout Japan from July to September 1918 (WIKI 2019b). Siberia Intervention (1918–1922): the dispatch of troops to Russia as part of an effort to support White Russian forces against Soviet Russia during the Russian Civil War. The Imperial Japanese Army continued to occupy Siberia after withdrew of other Allied forces (WIKI 2019c).
- 5.
In case of Japan, this post-transition stage contained the Second Demographic Transition (SDT), after the final stage of the Classical Demographic Transition (DT/FDT) (Sato and Kaneko 2015: 82).
- 6.
100 × (NRR-1) % indicates the natural growth rate of one generation, which belong to the women in reproductive age group at that year. Therefore, the Natural Growth Rate (NGR) of the population is expected to have about 30 years (one generation) delay compares to NRR. In fact, NGR in Japan has turned into negative in 2007, after NRR has turned negative in 1976. Conversely, the population decrease should continue at least for 30 years, as long as NRR at present year is negative.
- 7.
In Japan, instead of the National Eugenics Act (1940), the Eugenic Protection Act was enforced in 1951, which legalized the abortion in case of economic difficulties. At the same time, Ministry of Health and Welfare presented an executive summary on promoting birth control and Ms. Margaret Sanger, an American birth control activist, was invited to Japan in 1952. In 1954, the Japan Family Planning Association, Inc. (JFPA) was founded by Sanger’s leadership. The abortion rate (ratio to 100 live births) rose from 3.8% in 1949 to 71.6% in 1957 at peak, and then decreased to 17.4% in 2017.
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Hara, T. (2020). Japan’s Demographic Transition (JDT). In: An Essay on the Principle of Sustainable Population. SpringerBriefs in Population Studies(). Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-3654-6_3
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