Abstract
Queensland Senator Pauline Hanson is acknowledged globally as the quintessential populist leader, not for her commitment to populist ideology, but because of her dictatorial control and personality-based leadership of the party. But what are people voting for? Is it populism —the movement intractably associated with right-wing nationalism, hatred, and bigotry? Is it populist campaigning , a framing tactic of posing the candidate as being at one with the ordinary people, in opposition to a (stylized) undemocratic and self-serving elite, irrespective of ideology or partisan leaning? Or is it the rise of the personality or celebrity candidate, who appeals personally to voters more than, and differently from, any message from a political party or ideology? Election results are not always clear, as a candidate may attract voters for all these, or indeed other, reasons, so trying to interpret meaning from vote data is ambiguous at best. To know what voters are voting for, we must determine vote causality. This chapter looks at the difference between populism , populist campaigns, and personality candidates , examines whether there is evidence of support for any of them (with specific reference to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation) by comparing 2013 and 2016 federal election Senate results, and discusses the likely performance of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation in the upcoming federal election.
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Notes
- 1.
Fred Nile still uses the title Reverend but he resigned from the Uniting Church that ordained him in 2003 because they decided to ordain gay and lesbian ministers. Nile and the Church had a long history of being at odds on many issues before and after his resignation.
- 2.
Section 44 of the Constitution sets out restrictions on who can be a candidate for federal parliament. In full it reads:
44. Any person who
(i) Is under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience, or adherence to a foreign power, or is a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power: or
(ii) Is attainted of treason, or has been convicted and is under sentence, or subject to be sentenced, for any offence punishable under the law of the Commonwealth or of a State by imprisonment for one year or longer: or
(iii) Is an undischarged bankrupt or insolvent: or
(iv) Holds any office of profit under the Crown, or any pension payable during the pleasure of the Crown out of any of the revenues of the Commonwealth: or
(v) Has any direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the Public Service of the Commonwealth otherwise than as a member and in common with the other members of an incorporated company consisting of more than twenty-five persons:
shall be incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a senator or a member of the House of Representatives.
But sub-section iv. does not apply to the office of any of the Queen’s Ministers of State for the Commonwealth, or of any of the Queen’s Ministers for a State, or to the receipt of pay, half pay, or a pension, by any person as an officer or member of the Queen s navy or army, or to the receipt of pay as an officer or member of the naval or military forces of the Commonwealth by any person whose services are not wholly employed by the Commonwealth.
- 3.
Scott Ludlum (Greens Deputy Leader, Senator for Western Australia) and Barnaby Joyce (Deputy Prime Minister, Nationals Leader, Member for New England, New South Wales) held New Zealand citizenship; Larissa Waters (Green Deputy Leader, Senator for Queensland ) held Canadian citizenship; Fiona Nash (Nationals Deputy Leader, Senator for New South Wales), Malcolm Roberts (One Nation, Senator for Queensland ), Stephen Parry (Liberal, Senator for Tasmania, President of the Senate), Jacqui Lambie (Jacqui Lambie Network , Senator for Tasmania) John Alexander (Liberal, Member for Bennelong, New South Wales—resigned), Skye Kakoschke-Moore (NXT, Senator for SA), Katy Gallagher (Labor, Senator for ACT), David Feeney (Labor, Member for Batman, Victoria), Susan Lamb (Labor, Member for Longman), Justine Keay (Labor, Member for Braddon), Josh Wilson (Labor, Member for Fremantle) and Rebekha Sharkie (NXT, Member for Mayo) were UK citizens (Doran 2018). Barnaby Joyce and John Alexander won their respective by-elections in late 2017; Susan Lamb, Justine Keay , Josh Wilson, and Rebekha Sharkie all recontested and retained their seats in by-elections held on July 28, 2018 (Koziol 2018).
- 4.
The visual frame coding set used for mass appeal is: celebrities; large audiences; approving audiences; interaction with crowds.
- 5.
The visual frame coding set used for ordinariness is: informal attire; casual dress; athletic clothing; ordinary people; physical activity.
- 6.
The visual frame coding set for statesmanship is: elected officials and other influentials; patriotic symbols; symbols of progress; identifiable entourage; campaign paraphernalia; political hoopla; formal attire.
- 7.
The compassion framing set includes four visual and three behavioral measures: children; family associations; admiring women; religious symbols; and affinity gestures; interaction with individuals; physical embraces.
- 8.
Steven Bradbury was an Australian ice skater who won an ‘accidental’ gold medal in the 1000 m short-track speed skating final at the Salt Lake City 2002 Winter Games after his four rivals all collided and sprawled around the ice, leaving him to skate alone past the finish line (Gordon 2003). The term “doing a Bradbury” has since entered the Australian lexicon to mean ‘become the unlikely winner’ (Gwynn 2014).
- 9.
The sure loser coding set is: small crowds; disapproving audiences; displays of weakness; defiant gestures; inappropriate nonverbal displays.
- 10.
The maverick coding set I developed was unconventional dress; standing alone; aggressiveness; defiance; blunt speech; disengagement from broader agenda; behaving like a celebrity.
- 11.
The Voter Choice Project is this author’s Ph.D. research. The Columbia model is the multi-wave panel devised by Paul Lazarsfeld and colleagues at the Columbia Office of Radio Research (later Bureau of Applied Social Research) deployed on the Erie County study in the 1940 presidential election (see Lazarsfeld et al. 1968 [1944]) and the Elmira study in the 1948 presidential election (see Berelson et al. 1954).
- 12.
The Australian Election Study data set is too small for a meaningful comparison of voters for most of these micro parties. We do not have panel data addressing the specific question, and not all parties contest House seats, thus Senate results are the best available data set. As noted by Antony Green (2017) in his review of the election, using the figures from the 2014 Senate re-run in Western Australia is not really useful for this purpose, so I am using the 2013 election figures; thus these swing figures will not correlate with the AEC tally room site but should correlate with Antony Green’s figures.
- 13.
For comparison: Labor Leader Bill Shorten and his 100 Policy bus, nearly always in a blue suit (except when taking in his daily run), was framed an ideal candidate ; wearing leather jacket, wandering through the markets or at the beach Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and skivvy-wearing Greens Leader Richard Di Natale were populist campaigners.
- 14.
The Australian Electoral Commission is investigating PHON’s failure to declare the donation of the plane used by Pauline Hanson during the campaign by property developer Bill McNee (McGhee 2017). Senator Hanson has defended herself by insisting the plane belongs to staffer James Ashby (Bickers 2017).
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Crosby, R.K. (2019). Pauline Hanson, Personality, and Electoral Fortunes. In: Grant, B., Moore, T., Lynch, T. (eds) The Rise of Right-Populism. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2670-7_6
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