Abstract
Climate change has attracted people attention in recent years. IPCC’s assessment reports have informed people that climate change also has an influence on the regional instability. Droughts, sea level rise and resource shortages can further aggravate instable societies and fragile states. We establish a fragility evaluation system (FES) to evaluate the fragility of a state, using weighted mean method to calculate the fragility index. In the proposed system, we use pressure-state-response (PSR) model to measure the effect of climate change which mainly contributes to the degree of national vulnerability. Consequently, we divide states into five levels according to the fragility score. Back-Propagation neural network model is employed to predict the fragility index of Central Africa which is based on proposed system. The results can well demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of our model.
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Qi, Y., Zhang, F., Wang, Z. (2018). Research on Country Fragility Assessment of Climate Change. In: Zhou, Q., Miao, Q., Wang, H., Xie, W., Wang, Y., Lu, Z. (eds) Data Science. ICPCSEE 2018. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 902. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2206-8_41
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2206-8_41
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