Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Backward Fuzzy Rule Interpolation pp 121–141Cite as

Application: Terrorism Risk Assessment Using BFRI

  • Chapter
  • First Online:

  • 273 Accesses

Abstract

Terrorism and particularly suicide terrorist campaigns have became a high priority for governments, the media, and the general public. It is imperative to have a comprehensive security risk management programme including effective risk assessment and appropriate decision support for such activities. Terrorism risk assessment (TRA) therefore plays a crucial role in national and international security. In order to predict terrorist behaviour from a given set of evidence (including hypothesised scenarios), it is often necessary for investigators to reconstruct the possible scenarios that may have taken place.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  1. B.C. Ezell, S.P. Bennett, D. Von Winterfeldt, J. Sokolowski, A.J. Collins, Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk. Risk Anal. 30(4), 575–589 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. J.L. Darby, Evaluation of Risk from Acts of Terrorism: The Adversary/defender Model using Belief and Fuzzy Sets (United States, Department of Energy, 2006)

    Google Scholar 

  3. U. Inyaem, P. Meesad, C. Haruechaiyasak, D. Tran, Terrorism event classification using fuzzy inference systems (IJCSIS). Int. J. Comput. Sci. Inf. Secur. 7(3) (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  4. J.B. Bowles, C.Enrique Peláez, Fuzzy logic prioritization of failures in a system failure mode, effects and criticality analysis. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 50(2), 203–213 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. J.B. Bowles, Peláez, C. Enrique, Linguistic Evaluation of Terrorist Scenarios: Example Application, SAND2007-1301 (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, 2007)

    Google Scholar 

  6. X. Fu, Q. Shen, Fuzzy compositional modeling. IEEE Trans Fuzzy Syst. 18(4), 823–840 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Q. Shen, J. Keppens, C. Aitken, B. Schafer, M. Lee, A scenario-driven decision support system for serious crime investigation. Law Probab. Risk 5(2), 87–117 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. W.L. Waugh, International Terrorism: How Nations Respond to Terrorists (Documentary Publications Salisbury, NC, 1982)

    Google Scholar 

  9. R. Alcala, M.J. Gacto, F. Herrera, A fast and scalable multiobjective genetic fuzzy system for linguistic fuzzy modeling in high-dimensional regression problems. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 19(4), 666–681 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. J. Mostafa, S. Mukhopadhyay, M. Palakal, W. Lam, A multilevel approach to intelligent information filtering: model, system, and evaluation. ACM Trans. Inf. Syst. (TOIS) 15(4), 368–399 (1997)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. U. Kaymak , R. Babuska, Compatible cluster merging for fuzzy modeling, in Proceedings of the FUZZ-IEEE/IFES95 (1995), pp. 897–904

    Google Scholar 

  12. B. Song, R. Marks, S. Oh, P. Arabshahi, T. Caudell, J. Choi, et al., Adaptive membership function fusion and annihilation in fuzzy if-then rules, in Second IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (IEEE, 1993), pp. 961–967

    Google Scholar 

  13. C. Sun, Rule-base structure identification in an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 2(1), 64–73 (1994)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  14. B. John Garrick, J.E. Hall, M. Kilger, J.C. McDonald, T. O’Toole, P.S. Probst, E. Rindskopf Parker, R. Rosenthal, A.W. Trivelpiece, L.A. Van Arsdale, et al., Confronting the risks of terrorism: making the right decisions. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 86(2), 129–176 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  15. M. Sugeno, G. Kang, Fuzzy modeling and control of multilayer incinerator. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 18, 329–346 (1986)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. M. Sugeno, I. Hirano, S. Nakamura, S. Kotsu, Development of an intelligent unmanned helicopter, in Proceedings of International Conference on Fuzzy Systems, vol. 5 (IEEE, 1995), pp. 33–34

    Google Scholar 

  17. M. Sugeno, G. Kang, Structure identification of fuzzy model. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 28(1), 15–33 (1988)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  18. L.T. Kóczy, K. Hirota, L. Muresan, Interpolation in hierarchical fuzzy rule bases, in Proceedings of International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (2000), pp. 471–477

    Google Scholar 

  19. L.T. Kóczy, K. Hirota, L. Muresan, Backward fuzzy rule interpolation. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 22(6), 1682–1698 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Z. Huang, Q. Shen, Fuzzy interpolative reasoning via scale and move transformations. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 14(2), 340–359 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Z. Huang, Q. Shen, Fuzzy interpolation and extrapolation: a practical approach. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 16(1), 13–28 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. S. Jin, R. Diao, C. Quek, Q. Shen, Backward fuzzy rule interpolation with multiple missing values, in Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (2013), pp. 1–8

    Google Scholar 

  23. S. Jin, R. Diao, C. Quek, Q. Shen, Backward fuzzy interpolation and extrapolation with multiple multi-antecedent rules, in Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (2012), pp. 1170–1177

    Google Scholar 

  24. S. Atran, Genesis of suicide terrorism. Science 299(5612), 1534–1539 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. R.A. Pape, The strategic logic of suicide terrorism. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 97(3), 343–361 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. W.L. Perry, C. Berrebi, R.A. Brown, J. Hollywood, A. Jaycocks, P. Roshan, T. Sullivan, L. Miyashiro, Predicting Suicide Attacks: Integrating Spatial, Temporal and Social Features of Terrorist Attack Targets (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 2013)

    Google Scholar 

  27. R. Caruso, E. Gavrilova, Youth unemployment, terrorism and political violence, evidence from the israeli/palestinian conflict. Peace Econ. Peace Sci. Publ. Policy 18(2) (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  28. E.B. De Mesquita, The quality of terror. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 49(3), 515–530 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. D. Fromkin, The strategy of terrorism. Foreign Aff. 53(4), 683–698 (1975)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. A.B. Krueger, J. Maleckova, Education, poverty and terrorism: is there a causal connection. J. Econ. Perspect. 17(4), 119–144 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. G. LaFree, L. Dugan, Introducing the global terrorism database. Terror. Polit. Violence 19(2), 181–204 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. M.A. Sutton, O. Oenema, J.W. Erisman, A. Leip, H. van Grinsven, W. Winiwarter, Too much of a good thing. Nature 472(7342), 159–161 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. B.P. Bryant, R.J. Lempert, Thinking inside the box: a participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77(1), 34–49 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. V.A. Epanechnikov, Non-parametric estimation of a multivariate probability density. Theory Probab. Appl. 14(1), 153–158 (1969)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  35. K. H, B.F. Walter, The strategies of terrorism. Int. Secur. 31(1), 49–80 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. L. Huddy, S. Feldman, C. Taber, G. Lahav, Threat, anxiety, and support of antiterrorism policies. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 49(3), 593–608 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. E. Bueno de Mesquita, E.S. Dickson, The propaganda of the deed: Terrorism, counterterrorismand mobilization. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 51(2), 364–381 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. K. Gaibulloev, T. Sandler, Hostage taking: determinants of terrorist logistical and negotiation success. J. Peace Res. 46(6), 739–756 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. M. Hughes, Terror and negotiation. Terror. Polit. Violence 2(1), 72–825 (1990)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  40. V.A. Kremenyuk, G.-O. Faure, International Negotiation: Analysis, Approaches, Issues (Jossey-Bass San Francisco, California, 2002)

    Google Scholar 

  41. E. Pronin, K. Kennedy, S. Butsch, Bombing versus negotiating: how preferences for combating terrorism are affected by perceived terrorist rationality. Basic Appl. Soc. Psychol. 28(4), 385–392 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. D.G. Pruitt, Negotiation with terrorists. Int. Negot. 11(2), 371–394 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. B.I. Spector, Negotiating with villains revisited: research note. Int. Negot. 8(3), 613–621 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. I.W. Zartman, Negotiating with terrorists. Int. Negot. 8(3), 443–450 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. N.A. Bapat, State bargaining with transnational terrorist groups. Int. Stud. Q. 50(1), 213–230 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. T. Sandler et al., Terrorism & game theory. Simul. Gaming 34(3), 319–337 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. T. Boongoen, Q. Shen, C. Price, Disclosing false identity through hybrid link analysis. Artif. Intell. Law 18(1), 77–102 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. T. Boongoen, Q. Shen, Nearest-neighbor guided evaluation of data reliability and its applications. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 40(6), 1622–1633 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. X. Fu, T. Boongoen, Q. Shen, Evidence directed generation of plausible crime scenarios with identity resolution. Appl. Artif. Intell. 24(4), 253–276 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. R.J. Brym, B. Araj, Are suicide bombers suicidal? Stud. Confl. Terror. 35(6), 432–443 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. A. Merari, I. Diamant, A. Bibi, Y. Broshi, G. Zakin, Personality characteristics of self martyrs/suicide bombers and organizers of suicide attacks. Terror. Polit. Violence 22(1), 87–101 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. L. Miller, The terrorist mind II. typologies, psychopathologies, and practical guidelines for investigation. Int. J. Offender Ther. Comp. Criminol. 50(3), 255–268 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. A. Lankford, Could suicide terrorists actually be suicidal? Stud. Confl. Terror. 34(4), 337–366 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  54. H.V. Savitch, An anatomy of urban terror: lessons from jerusalem and elsewhere. Urb. Stud. 42(3), 361–395 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. H.A. Hagras, A hierarchical type-2 fuzzy logic control architecture for autonomous mobile robots. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 12(4), 524–539 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Z.-Q. Liu, R. Satur, Contextual fuzzy cognitive map for decision support in geographic information systems. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 7(5), 495–507 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. R. Diao, Q. Shen, Feature selection with harmony search. IEEE Trans. B Syst. Man Cybern. 42(6), 1509–1523 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  58. R. Diao, Q. Shen, New approaches to fuzzy-rough feature selection. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 17(4), 824–838 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Electrical and Information Engineering, Chongqing University of Science and Technology, Chongqing, China

    Shangzhu Jin & Jun Peng

  2. Institute of Mathematics, Physics and Computer Science, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, UK

    Qiang Shen

Authors
  1. Shangzhu Jin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Qiang Shen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jun Peng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shangzhu Jin .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2019 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Jin, S., Shen, Q., Peng, J. (2019). Application: Terrorism Risk Assessment Using BFRI. In: Backward Fuzzy Rule Interpolation. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1654-8_7

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation