Abstract
With the gradual ageing of population, reduced labor force and savings, China’s economic growth will significantly slow down and trigger a series of problems such as falling real estate prices, old age and health care endowment deficit, which all call for preventive measures and in-depth analysis. Based on the systematical analysis of the domestic and global trend, this study explores the impact of ageing population macro-economy in China by comparing with Japan and other countries. A series of measures are proposed, including to increase the total fertility rate, guide the population flow with new urbanization, promote “excellent leverage” rather than simple “deleverageing”, encourage innovation, support “intellectual capital” and more humanitarian care for the elderly to meet the challenges posed by an ageing society.
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- 1.
(1) Tier-1 cities include Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. (2) Tier 2 cities, including provincial capital cities other than Tier 1 cities and the four cities at sub-provincial level directly administrated by the State Council. (3) Small and medium-sized cities: other cities than the Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities; (4) towns and townships; and (5) rural areas. The definition of townships and rural areas is the same as that of the “Sixth Census.”
- 2.
Due to the large number of data points on Japan, 5-year data are used; since China has fewer data points, annual data is used (but the economic growth rate uses 5-year moving average).
- 3.
See Tan, H., et al., “Population Aging, Migration, Financial Leverage and the Economic Long-Swing,” Economic Research, No. 2, 2016.
- 4.
See “Sixth Census Data”, China Statistics Press, April 2012.
- 5.
See press release Wang Pei’an, deputy director of the State Health and Family Planning Commission, on implementing the two-child policy. November 16, 2013. National Health and Family Planning Commission, www.moh.gov.cn.
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Zhao, Z., and Chen, W. (2011). How low is China’s fertility rate?. Social Sciences in China, (3).
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Yao, Y., Tan, H. (2018). Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Ageing in China. In: Dong, K., Yao, Y. (eds) Annual Report on Financing Old Age Care in China (2017). Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0968-7_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0968-7_3
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