Advertisement

Population Aging and Economic Growth

  • Kaiti Zhang
  • Ping Guo
  • Jing Li
  • Lujun Sun
  • Fengli Ma
  • Wensheng Miao
  • Haitao Wang
  • Xiaolan Wu
  • Qiuxia Zhang
  • Yanyan Wei
  • Lili Wang
  • Jiayao Qu
  • Xiaoqi Yang
  • Xiaohui Luo
Chapter
Part of the Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path book series (RSCDCDP)

Abstract

Currently, China is experiencing the early phase of population aging. Therefore, opportunities, such as ‘demographic profit’ and ‘demographic dividend’, provided by the ‘post golden age’ of age-structure transformation should be seized in order to prepare for ‘demographic deficit’ and ‘demographic debt’ that might emerge in the later phase of population aging. Meanwhile, we should encourage more consumption from the elderly and accelerate the establishment of the social security system and its rules, while transforming the pattern of economic development from investment and foreign trade-oriented to consumption-led; analysing the dual impact of population aging on savings, investment, human capital and technological progress by drawing on both positive and negative examples from other countries, making full use of advantages and avoiding disadvantages; tapping the human resource potential of the elderly; and giving full play to the positive effect of population aging in breaking out of the ‘middle-income trap’.

References

  1. Barrientos, A., Gorman, M., & Heslop, A. (2003). Old Age poverty in developing countries: Contribution and dependence in later life. World Development, 31(1), 555–570.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Cai, F., & Wang, D. W. (1999). Sustainability of China’s economic growth and labor contribution. Economic Research Journal, 10, 62–68.Google Scholar
  3. China Centre for National Accounting and Economic Growth at Peking University. (2011). Report on China’s economic growth in 2011—The key to overcoming the middle-income trap lies in the transformation of development mode. China Development Press.Google Scholar
  4. Fan, J. (2011). Economic transformation of Japan before and after exceeding per capita GDP of 1 million USD. Qunzhong (1), 28–29.Google Scholar
  5. Guest, R. S. (2007). Innovation in macroeconomic modeling of population ageing. Economic Modelling, 24, 101–119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Hou, J. M., & Zhou, H. Y. (2010). Impacts of the aging population on the Japanese economic development. Contemporary Economy of Japan, 4, 53–57.Google Scholar
  7. Naughton, B. (2010). The Chinese economy: Transitions and growth. Shanghai People’s Publishing House.Google Scholar
  8. Report of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Challenges for China’s public spending: Toward greater effectiveness and equity.Google Scholar
  9. Skirbekk, V. (2004). Age and individual productivity: A literature survey. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research.Google Scholar
  10. Song, S. Y., & Li, C. L. (2008). China’s social security expenditure level, 1992–2006. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 3, 38–46.Google Scholar
  11. The World Bank. (2010, November). Robust recovery, rising risk: World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010 (Vol. 2, p. 27), Washington, DC.Google Scholar
  12. Tian, X. Y., Wang, J. Y., & Zhou, G. Q. (2006). Aging: From ‘demographic profit’ to ‘demographic deficit’. Economic Press China.Google Scholar
  13. Wang, F., & Mason, A. (2006). The demographic factor in China’s transition. In Y. F. Lin (Eds.), 21st century population and economic development in China (pp. 2–18). Social Sciences Academic Press.Google Scholar
  14. Wang, Y. M. (2011). International compare and reason analyses of medium incomes. Modern Talent, 2, 28–31.Google Scholar
  15. Ye, X. J., Li, L., & Kusaka, Y. (2002). The process of Japan’s population aging and related health-care systems. Health Economics Research, 6, 24–25.Google Scholar
  16. Yin, H. (2000). Korea’s population aging and social security for the elderly. Population Journal, 5, 29–34.Google Scholar
  17. Yuan, B., & Guo, X. B. (2009). A review on the impact of population aging on economic growth. Economic Perspectives, 11, 114–119.Google Scholar
  18. Zhang, M. (2009). China’s high savings: Stylized facts and sector analysis. China Financial Publishing House.Google Scholar
  19. Zhang, K. T., & Guo, P. (2010). Chinese population aging and the elderly status of Blue Book. Social Sciences Press.Google Scholar
  20. Zheng, B. W. (2011). “Middle-income trap” and China’s path to development: In perspective of international experiences and lessons. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2, 2–15.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Social Sciences Academic Press and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kaiti Zhang
    • 1
  • Ping Guo
    • 1
  • Jing Li
    • 1
  • Lujun Sun
    • 1
  • Fengli Ma
    • 1
  • Wensheng Miao
    • 1
  • Haitao Wang
    • 1
  • Xiaolan Wu
    • 1
  • Qiuxia Zhang
    • 1
  • Yanyan Wei
    • 1
  • Lili Wang
    • 1
  • Jiayao Qu
    • 1
  • Xiaoqi Yang
    • 1
  • Xiaohui Luo
    • 1
  1. 1.China Research Center on AgingBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations