Abstract
China’s economic growth continued to slow down further. In the first half of 2016, real GDP growth moderated to 6.7% YoY from 6.9% in 2015 and 7% a year earlier respectively. Of the industrial enterprises above designated size, value added decreased marginally to 6.0% from 6.1% in 2015 and 6.3% a year ago. (see Fig. 1.1). China’s continued economic slowdown reflects that, given subdued external demand, increasing labor cost, and end of property boom, the investment-driven and export-oriented growth model, which has served China well in the past, is now in a difficult position as returns on investment (ROI) has fallen.
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Notes
- 1.
In this report, all the variables/indicators are taken as nominal ones, that is, they are measured at current prices, unless they are clearly indicated as “real”. All the growth rates are measured year-on-year (YoY), unless they are clearly indicated as “quarter-on-quarter (QoQ)”.
- 2.
The growth rate of profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was down by 6.18% in 2015.
- 3.
- 4.
According to the Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2014 National Outward Foreign Direct Investment released by the Department of Outward Investment and Economic Cooperation, the OFDI by China central enterprises almost accounted for 48.9% of the total non-financial OFDI. Taking into account the OFDI by local SOEs, the OFDI by SOEs would be the main body of total OFDI. Take Shanghai, in which private investment is relatively concentrated on. The OFDI by SOEs in 2014 reached 5.28 billion dollars, accounting for 42.93% of total investment. In addition, in terms of volume of projects, for SOEs are commonly greater than those for private enterprises. Source: Shanghai Municipality Commission, Annual Report on Shanghai OFDI Cooperation and Development 2015.
- 5.
The eastern region covers ten provinces or municipalities: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, and Hainan. The central region covers six provinces: Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan. The western region covers twelve provinces, municipalities, or autonomous region: Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. The northeastern region covers three provinces: Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. In December, 2015, the FAI in the three provinces in the northeastern region was first listed independently by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
- 6.
CQMM team calculations on CEIC data.
- 7.
Online Retail Sales: refers to the sales of goods and services got through public online trading platform (including self-built websites and third-party platform). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (such as virtual product, services). The total retail sales of consumer goods include online retail sales of physical goods, excludes online retail sales of non-physical goods.
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Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University. (2017). China Economic Performance in the First Half of 2016. In: China’s Macroeconomic Outlook. Current Chinese Economic Report Series. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-3280-6_1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-3280-6_1
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