Abstract
Flood duration, volume, and peak flow are important considerations in flood risk analysis and management of hydraulic structures. The conventional flood frequency analysis assumed that the marginal distribution functions of flood parameters follow a certain pattern. However, such assumption is impractical because a flood event is multivariate and the flood parameter distributions can be different. These discrepancies were addressed using bivariate joint distributions and Copula function which allow flood parameters having different marginal distributions to be analyzed simultaneously. The analysis used hourly stream flow data for 45 years recorded at the Rantau Panjang gauging station on the Johor River in Malaysia. It was found that flood duration and volume are best fitted by the generalized extreme value distribution while peak flow by the Generalized Pareto. Inference function for margin (IFM) method was applied to model the joint distributions of correlated flood variables for each pair and the results showed that all the calculated θ values were in acceptable range of Gaussian Copula. By horizontally cutting the joint cumulative distribution function (CDF), a set of contour lines were obtained for Gaussian Copula which represented the occurrence probabilities for the joint variables. Also the joint return period for pair of flood variables was calculated.
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Acknowledgments
We would like to express our gratitude to the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID), Malaysia, for providing the data. This research was facilitated by the UTM Research Management Centre (RMC) and supported by the Asian Core Program of the Japanese Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) and the Ministry of Higher Education (MOHE), Malaysia, through Grant Vote No: 4L832.
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Salarpour, M., Yusop, Z., Yusof, F., Shahid, S., Jajarmizadeh, M. (2016). Flood Frequency Analysis Based on Gaussian Copula. In: Tahir, W., Abu Bakar, P., Wahid, M., Mohd Nasir, S., Lee, W. (eds) ISFRAM 2015. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0500-8_13
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0500-8_13
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