Indirect Impact of Nuclear Power Plant Accidents Using an Integrated Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model with a Microsimulation Module on the Korean Transportation Network
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The purpose of this paper is to assess the spatial and economic impact of the malfunction of nuclear power plants in Korea using a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model with a microsimulation module of the railroad and highway networks. This integrated approach takes into account the flows of commodities and input of factors among regions and industries using the spatial interaction and accessibility. The economic agents of the model consist of the producers, households, and governments from 16 Korean city-province regions, each having seven industrial sectors. While the microsimulation module of the highway and railroad networks measures the change in the regional accessibility of highways and railroads after the disaster, the SCGE model estimates the spatial effect of the reduction in growth potential and regional accessibility levels caused by the disaster on the economies. These counterfactual experiments show that accidents at nuclear power plants could lead to a reduction of GDP by 3.87 %, and the negative effects on the gross regional product (GRP) tend to become more severe in the Busan MA than any other regions by 3.03 %. The GRP levels in Seoul could decrease by 2.96 %, which is the smallest recorded amount from the six areas, due to its fewer economic interactions with the rest of Korea and a kind of reflexive benefit.
KeywordsSCGE model Unexpected events Nuclear disaster Economic impact analysis
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