Abstract
This chapter provides an introduction to the discussion of demographic changes, issues and models in the Asia-Pacific region that are the focus of this book. The Asia-Pacific region represents 4.9 billion people or roughly 63% of the world’s population. This region is hugely diverse: the countries and subregions vary demographically, geographically, economically, culturally and institutionally. We examine salient features of population change over the last three decades and draw conclusions on the underlying factors which influence population dynamics. We also consider population projections until the middle of the twenty-first century and briefly review some salient impacts of demographic change. Population growth is declining and populations are ageing, both numerically and structurally, everywhere in the region. Fertility rates are converging to replacement levels in many countries or remain below replacement. Large differences in life expectancies, urbanisation and international migration remain. Given the large spatial variations, we argue for a greater emphasis on subnational and multiregional population analysis and projections.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
- 1.
The discussion of Asia-Pacific demographic changes and their consequences must remain by necessity brief in this introductory chapter. For a comprehensive review with respect to Asia, see, for example, Zhao and Hayes (2017).
- 2.
United Nations Population Division tabulations include the Islamic Republic of Iran in the group of countries of South Asia. We have excluded Iran from this group because this country in the Middle East is more naturally grouped with the countries that are formally referred to as Western Asia.
- 3.
In this chapter, we use exclusively population projections produced by the United Nations Population Division. Although there is consensus among demographers about the broad trends, different assumptions may lead to somewhat different results. For example, population projections of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) expect a faster decline in fertility than the UN projections as a consequence of accelerated improvements in the education of young women in developing countries (Lutz et al. 2018).
- 4.
- 5.
See, for example, the article ‘Rural Japan: old, shrinking and broke’ in The Economist of June 29, 2019. It is important to note that even some suburban areas in otherwise still growing metropolitan areas may also be ageing rapidly, see ‘Demography in Japan: a negative-sum game’ in The Economist of January 7, 2017 (www.economist.com, accessed 11 Nov 2019).
- 6.
Note that in India the trend is actually the opposite: the proportion of women working full-time has been sharply declining, see, for example, Desai and Joshi (2019).
- 7.
See, for example, Flandorfer (2012) for a survey on the growing use of robots for the care of older people.
- 8.
However, as noted in the previous section, the subregional averages do hide large differences between individual countries. For example, about 40% of Singapore’s population is foreign born.
References
Acemoglu D, Restrepo P (2018) Demographics and Automation. NBER Working Paper 24421. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA
Arslanalp S, Lee J, Rawat U (2018) Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia. IMF Working Paper WP/18/172. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC
Beine M, Parsons C (2015) Climatic factors as determinants of international migration. Scand J Econ 117(2):723–767
Bloom DE, Williamson JG (1998) Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. World Bank Econ Rev 12(3):419–455
Bloom D, Canning D, Sevilla J (2003) The demographic dividend: a new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Population Matters (A RAND Program of Policy-Relevant Research Communication), Santa Monica, CA
Borjas GJ (2003) The labour demand curve is downwards sloping: re-examining the impact of immigration on the labor market. Q J Econ 118(4):1335–1374
Brunow S, Nijkamp P, Poot J (2015) The impact of international migration on economic growth in the global economy. In: Chiswick BR, Miller PW (eds) Handbook on the Economics of International Migration, vol 1B. Elsevier, Amsterdam
De Groot HLF, Poot J, Smit MJ (2016) Which agglomeration externalities matter most and why? J Econ Surv 30(4):756–782
Desai S, Joshi O (2019) The paradox of declining female work force participation in an era of economic growth. Indian J Labour Econ 62(1):55–71
Desmet K, Nagy DK, Rossi-Hansberg E (2018) The geography of development. J Polit Econ 126(3):903–983
ESCAP (2013) Urbanization trends in Asia and the Pacific. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. United Nations, New York
Farzanegan MR, Witthuhn S (2017) Corruption and political stability: does the youth bulge matter? Eur J Polit Econ 49:47–70
Feng W (2010) China’s population destiny: the looming crisis. Curr Hist 109(728):244–251
Firmino Costa da Silva D, Elhorst JP, da Mota Silveira Neto R (2017) Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Reg Stud 51(6):894–908
Flandorfer P (2012) Population ageing and socially assistive robots for elderly persons: the importance of sociodemographic factors for user acceptance. Int J Popul Res 2012:829835. https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/829835
Gabaix X (1999) Zipf’s law for cities: an explanation. Q J Econ 114(3):739–767
Gabaix X (2016) Power laws in economics: an introduction. J Econ Perspect 30(1):185–205
Glaeser EL (2011) Triumph of the city: how our greatest invention makes us richer, smarter, greener, healthier and happier. Penguin Press, London
Hayes A (2013) Population dynamics and sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific. Asia Pac Popul J 28(1):57–83
Hayes AC (2017) Population and environment in Asia. Chapter 25. In: Zhao Z, Hayes AC (eds) Routledge handbook of Asian demography. Routledge, London
Lee R (2003) The demographic transition: three centuries of fundamental change. J Econ Perspect 17:167–190
Lee R, Mason A (2010) Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging. Demography 47(S1):S151–S172
Lee S-H, Mason A (2011) International migration, population age structure and economic growth in Asia. Asian Pac Migr J 20(2):195–213
Letman J (2018) Rising seas give island nation a stark choice: relocate or elevate. Natl Geogr November 19
Li Y, Westlund H, Liu Y (2019) Why some rural areas decline while some others not: an overview of rural evolution in the world. J Rural Stud 68:135–143
Lutz W, Goujon A, KC S, Stonawski M, Stilianakis N (2018) Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 Assessment for 201 Countries. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg
Matanle P (2017) Towards an Asia-Pacific ‘depopulation dividend’ in the 21st century: regional growth and shrinkage in Japan and New Zealand. Asia Pac J Jpn Focus 5(6):5
Nijkamp P, Poot J, Sahin M (eds) (2012) Migration impact assessment: new horizons. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham
OECD/WHO (2012) Infant mortality. In: Health at a glance: Asia/Pacific. OECD, Paris
Parsons AJQ, Gilmour S (2018) An evaluation of fertility- and migration-based policy responses to Japan’s ageing population. PLoS One 13(12):e0209285. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0209285
Phillips DR (2018) Asia-Pacific and global population ageing. In: Klassen TR, Higo M, Dhirathiti NS, Devasahayam TW (eds) Ageing in Asia-Pacific: Interdisciplinary and comparative perspectives. Routledge, London, pp 25–45
Poot J (2008) Demographic change and regional competitiveness: the effects of immigration and ageing. Int J Foresight Innov Policy 4(1/2):129–145
Poot J, Pawar S (2013) Is demography destiny? Urban population change and economic vitality of future cities. J Urban Manage 2(1):5–23
Poot J, Vloeimans EE (2015) ‘Urban World Idol’: could Shanghai rank #1 by 2050? Int J Glob Environ Iss 14(1/2):40–54
Raymer J, Willekens F, Rogers A (2019) Spatial demography: a unifying core and agenda for further research. Popul Space Place 25:e2179. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2179
Rogers A (1966) Matrix analysis of interregional population growth and distribution. Pap Reg Sci Assoc 18:177–196
Rogers A (1968) Matrix analysis of interregional population growth and distribution. University of California Press, Berkeley
Rutledge DT, Cameron M, Elliot S, Fenton T, Huser B, McBride G, McDonald G, O’Connor M, Phyn D, Poot J, Price R, Scrimgeour F, Small B, Tait A, van Delden H, Wedderburn ME, Woods RA (2008) Choosing regional futures: challenges and choices in building integrated models to support long-term regional planning in New Zealand. Reg Sci Policy Pract 1(1):85–108
Schoen R (ed) (2019) Analytical family demography. Springer, Berlin
Steptoe A, Deaton A, Stone AA (2015) Subjective wellbeing, health, and ageing. Lancet 385(9968):640–648
Tacoli C (2012) Urbanization, gender and urban poverty: paid work and unpaid carework in the city. Population and Development Branch, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), New York
United Nations (2018) 2018 revision of world urbanization prospects. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division Online Edition. Rev. 1. https://population.un.org/wup/. Accessed 4 Nov 2019
United Nations (2019a) 2019 Revision of world population prospects. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division Online Edition. Rev. 1. https://population.un.org/wpp/. Accessed 4 Nov 2019
United Nations (2019b) 2019 Revision of the International Migrant Stock. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates19.asp. Accessed 7 Nov 2019
Wang X, Chen KZ, Robinson S, Huang Z (2017) Will China’s demographic transition exacerbate its income inequality? CGE modeling with top-down microsimulation. J Asia Pac Econ 22(2):227–252
Wei T, Zhu Q, Glomsrød S (2018) Ageing impact on the economy and emissions in China: a global computable general equilibrium analysis. Energies 11(4):817. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11040817
Zhao Z, Hayes AC (eds) (2017) Routledge handbook of Asian demography. Routledge, London
Acknowledgement
We thank Shefali Pawar of the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis at the University of Waikato in New Zealand for research assistance with writing Sect. 1.2.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Poot, J., Roskruge, M. (2020). Population Change in the Asia-Pacific Region: Trends, Issues and Models. In: Poot, J., Roskruge, M. (eds) Population Change and Impacts in Asia and the Pacific. New Frontiers in Regional Science: Asian Perspectives, vol 30. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0230-4_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0230-4_1
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-10-0229-8
Online ISBN: 978-981-10-0230-4
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)