The Security Impact of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

Abstract

Nuclear disarmament has been on the international agenda since the dawn of the nuclear age. Over the years, nuclear-armed States undertook various legal obligations and political commitments to eliminate their nuclear arsenals. The aspiration of attaining a world without nuclear weapons nevertheless remained elusive. The strategic stability provided by nuclear deterrence—both at the regional and global level—has largely been trumping the drive towards global zero. The sense of frustration with the lack of progress towards nuclear disarmament under the traditional security-centric framework, alongside a disproportionate focus on selective non-proliferation, gave rise to an international movement to ban nuclear weapons as a humanitarian imperative. It quickly gained momentum and resulted in the conclusion of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in July 2017. This chapter will trace the genesis of the TPNW and highlight the primary factors that propelled its adoption. The Treaty’s overall impact will be evaluated in light of the strong countervailing view favouring the continued utility of nuclear weapons on account of their security benefits and deterrent effect. It would be argued that the TPNW could contribute to the stigmatization of nuclear weapons by building moral pressure against their retention. However, it would neither be of much value in practical disarmament terms, nor in a normative sense for evolving universal customary law. The TPNW would not prove to be a game changer for nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future.

Usman Iqbal Jadoon is a Pakistani career diplomat who has been working on arms control issues since 2006 during his postings in Islamabad, Vienna and Geneva and as a member of Pakistan’s delegations to the UN General Assembly’s First Committee in New York. Only the personal views of the author are presented here solely for discussion purposes.