Abstract
Nuclear technology has become an integral component of China’s economic and political future, accounting for its energy needs, technological exports and most notably its military protection as a sovereign State. This chapter explores China’s current nuclear status in relation to its economic, political and military ambitions. In particular, it assesses China’s mounting production of nuclear power for civilian purposes, aimed at both meeting growing commercial and manufacturing demands due to its rapid economic development at home, as well as addressing increased consumer needs for personal consumption as the country becomes wealthier with greater energy requirements. Indeed, China is both a user and increasingly a supplier of nuclear technology which spans far wider than simply meeting domestic consumption. It has become an important exporter of nuclear technology integrated into the nuclear supply chain globally. Moreover, China is a nuclear-weapon State pursuant to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 1968, raising concerns regarding its overall aspirations as a nuclear-armed State potentially becoming more dominant, regionally and globally. In essence, this chapter explores China’s rise as a formidable nuclear State from both a civilian and military perspective. Discussion focuses on its current position, making reference to its international legal obligations and its overall ambitions in light of its emerging status as an economic and military superpower within a modern global context.
Jonathan L. Black-Branch, Chair of the ILA Committee on Nuclear Weapons, Non-Proliferation and Contemporary International Law and President and CEO of ISLAND The Foundation for International Society of Law and Nuclear Disarmament .
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Notes
- 1.
Early 2019.
- 2.
Su et al. 2018.
- 3.
China’s energy consumption structure continues to optimize: Xinhua report (4 May 2019), http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-05/04/c_138033177.htm.
- 4.
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (1 July 1968), 729 UNTS 161.
- 5.
See: U.S. Department of Energy: The Manhattan Project: An Interactive history, https://www.osti.gov/opennet/manhattan-project-history/Events/1890s-1939/exploring.htm.
- 6.
Atoms for Peace Speech. Address by Mr. Dwight D. Eisenhower, President of the United States of America, to the 470th Plenary Meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. Tuesday, 8 December 1953, 2:45 p.m. https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech.
- 7.
- 8.
Ibid.
- 9.
As quoted at: https://fas.org/nuke/guide/china/nuke/index.html.
- 10.
See: UNGA Res 1(I)(1946), Acheson Lilienthal Report (16 March 1946), http://www.learnworld.com/ZNW/LWText.Acheson-Lilienthal.html, Baruch Plan (1946), http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/Deterrence/BaruchPlan.shtml.
- 11.
Miljković M, The Researchers’ Guide to the IAEA Archives, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/researchers-guide-to-the-iaea-archives.
- 12.
Statute of the International Atomic Energy Agency—IAEA Statute—(26 October 1956, entering into force in 1957, amended 1963, 1973, 1989, and 1999), https://www.iaea.org/about/about-statute.
- 13.
Source: IAEA History, https://www.iaea.org/about/overview/history.
- 14.
- 15.
- 16.
Ifft 2017.
- 17.
Article IX.3 ‘…. For the purposes of this Treaty, a nuclear-weapon State is one which has manufactured and exploded a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device prior to 1 January 1967’.
- 18.
Article I ‘Each nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty undertakes not to transfer to any recipient whatsoever nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices or control over such weapons or explosive devices directly, or indirectly; and not in any way to assist, encourage, or induce any non-nuclear-weapon State to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices, or control over such weapons or explosive devices’.
- 19.
Article VI ‘Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control’.
- 20.
ICJ, Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons, Advisory Opinion (GA Request), I.C.J. Reports 1996, p. 226, para 105.
- 21.
Grinter 2013.
- 22.
Ibid.
- 23.
See: Black-Branch 2020, 334–335.
- 24.
Kristensen and Norris 2019.
- 25.
Kulacki 2016.
- 26.
See Black-Branch 2020.
- 27.
Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2019, at 65–66.
- 28.
Article II ‘Each non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty undertakes not to receive the transfer from any transferor whatsoever of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices or of control over such weapons or explosive devices directly, or indirectly; not to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices; and not to seek or receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices’.
- 29.
- 30.
Article IV(1) ‘Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with Articles I and II of this Treaty’.
- 31.
Article II of the IAEA Statute.
- 32.
Article III.A.5 of the IAEA Statute.
- 33.
IAEA, Model Protocol Additional to the Agreement(s) between State(s) and the International Atomic Energy Agency for the Application of Safeguards, INFCIRC/540 (Corr.) (September 1997).
- 34.
See IAEA, Safeguard Agreements, https://www.iaea.org/topics/safeguards-agreements.
- 35.
See IAEA, Safeguards in Practice, https://www.iaea.org/topics/safeguards-in-practice.
- 36.
See The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, http://eng.sectsco.org/about_sco/.
- 37.
Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (8 December 1987), 27 ILM (1988), 90, http://www.armscontrol.org/documents/inf.
- 38.
Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms and Protocol (8 April 2010), http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/04/08/new-start-treaty-and-protocol, to expire on 5 February 2021, unless extended by the Parties.
- 39.
Vaddi 2019.
- 40.
China Power, How is China’s energy footprint changing?, https://chinapower.csis.org/energy-footprint/.
- 41.
Ibid.
- 42.
Ibid.
- 43.
China’s nuclear power output jumps 18% year on year. World Nuclear News (24 February 2020) https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Chinas-nuclear-generating-capacity-continued-to-gr.
- 44.
Nuclear Power in China (Updated April 2020) World Nuclear Organization. https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx.
- 45.
Ibid.
- 46.
Ibid.
- 47.
Ibid.
- 48.
Ibid.
- 49.
Ibid.
- 50.
Ibid.
- 51.
Ibid.
- 52.
Ibid.
- 53.
Ibid.
- 54.
The World Bank, State Environmental Protection Administration, Cost of Pollution in China: Economic Estimates of Physical Damages (February 2007), https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/782171468027560055/cost-of-pollution-in-china-economic-estimates-of-physical-damages.
- 55.
‘Official measurements of fine particles in the air measuring less than 2.5 micrometres, which pose the greatest health risk, rose to a record 993 micrograms per cubic metre in Beijing on 12 January 2013, compared with World Health Organization guidelines of no higher than 25.’ As quoted from: Nuclear Power in China (Updated April 2020) World Nuclear Organization. https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx.
- 56.
Ibid.
- 57.
Ibid.
- 58.
Ibid.
- 59.
China Electricity Council figures as cited in Nuclear Power in China (Updated April 2020) World Nuclear Organization, https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx.
- 60.
How is China’s energy footprint changing?, https://chinapower.csis.org/energy-footprint/.
- 61.
Nuclear Power in China (Updated April 2020) World Nuclear Organization. https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx.
- 62.
Gil 2017.
- 63.
Hibbs 2018.
- 64.
Nuclear Power in China (Updated April 2020) World Nuclear Organization. https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx.
- 65.
Ibid.
- 66.
Gil 2017.
- 67.
Quoted ibid.
- 68.
Quoted ibid.
- 69.
Ibid.
- 70.
Ibid.
- 71.
Hibbs 2018.
- 72.
Ibid.
- 73.
Ibid.
- 74.
Fairley 2018.
- 75.
Ibid.
- 76.
Ibid.
- 77.
Fukushima Daiichi Accident. World Nuclear Association (updated May 2020), https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx.
- 78.
For more information on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES), see IAEA: https://www.iaea.org/resources/databases/international-nuclear-and-radiological-event-scale.
- 79.
Fukushima Daiichi Accident. World Nuclear Association (Updated May 2020), https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx.
- 80.
Ibid.
- 81.
Ibid.
- 82.
Ibid.
- 83.
Ibid.
- 84.
Fairley 2018.
- 85.
Hibbs 2018.
- 86.
As quoted in Fairley 2018.
- 87.
Ibid.
- 88.
Green 2016. See also: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6X8UZpBUdNw.
- 89.
As quoted from Green 2016. See South China Morning Post (9 August 2016) ‘Residents of Chinese city protest for third day over possible plans to build nuclear fuel reprocessing centre’, www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2001467/residents-chin…, and Zhao Y (8 August 2016) ‘Jiangsu residents protest nuclear project’, www.globaltimes.cn/content/999002.shtml.
- 90.
Fairley 2018.
- 91.
Taiwan government maintains nuclear phase-out. World Nuclear News (1 February 2019) https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Taiwan-government-maintains-nuclear-phase-out.
- 92.
Ibid.
- 93.
Ibid.
- 94.
Taiwan’s president reaffirms anti-nuclear stance at march. AP News (27 April 2019), https://apnews.com/fc3d8b0db59343069c004f35557f3a2e.
- 95.
Taiwanese protesters rally for ‘nuclear-free’ island (11 March 2018), https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2136732/taiwanese-protesters-rally-nuclear-free-island.
- 96.
Id.
- 97.
Kuang-Jung Hsu 2017.
- 98.
Hibbs 2018.
- 99.
Ibid.
- 100.
Ibid.
- 101.
Fairley 2018.
- 102.
Ibid.
- 103.
Id.
- 104.
Id.
- 105.
Hibbs 2018.
- 106.
Ibid.
- 107.
Ibid.
- 108.
Ibid.
- 109.
Quin 2019.
- 110.
Hong Kong: First arrests under ‘anti-protest’ law as handover marked, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53244862.
- 111.
As per Article VI NPT.
- 112.
Black-Branch 2020.
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Black-Branch, J.L. (2021). China’s Nuclear Prowess: A Formidable Nuclear Military Power and a Nuclear Energy Power House. In: Black-Branch, J.L., Fleck, D. (eds) Nuclear Non-Proliferation in International Law - Volume VI. T.M.C. Asser Press, The Hague. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-6265-463-1_10
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