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An Evaluation of Population Forecast Errors for Florida and its Counties, 1980–2010

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Emerging Techniques in Applied Demography

Part of the book series: Applied Demography Series ((ADS,volume 4))

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Abstract

Many decisions in both the public and private sectors are based on expectations of future population change. Given the importance of these decisions, it is essential to investigate the forecast accuracy of previously produced population projections, especially those used for official purposes. In this study, we evaluate the precision and bias of several sets of population projections for Florida and its counties, published by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida between 1980 and 2005. We analyze the effects of population size, growth rate, and length of projection horizon on forecast errors and investigate two different approaches to measuring the uncertainty inherent in population projections, one based on a range of projections and the other based on empirical prediction intervals. We believe that the results presented here will give data users some valuable information regarding the forecast accuracy of state and local population projections and improve their ability to use projections for decision-making purposes.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The 1985, 1995, and 2005 population estimates used to calculate errors have been revised to incorporate the results of the 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 censuses. The mid-decade estimates upon which the projections were based, however, were the original post-censal estimates.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

    Stanley K. Smith & Stefan Rayer

Authors
  1. Stanley K. Smith
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  2. Stefan Rayer
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Stanley K. Smith .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Hobby Center for Public Policy, University of Houston, Houston, Texas, USA

    M.Nazrul Hoque

  2. Department of Demography Inst of Demog and Socioeconomic Research, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas, USA

    Lloyd B. Potter

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Smith, S., Rayer, S. (2015). An Evaluation of Population Forecast Errors for Florida and its Counties, 1980–2010. In: Hoque, M., B. Potter, L. (eds) Emerging Techniques in Applied Demography. Applied Demography Series, vol 4. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8990-5_2

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