Abstract
This article presents Statistics Canada’s new estimation method for census families and households using Canadian tax data. In the past, the number of census families was estimated using a component method and the number of households was determined using a headship rate method. The new method is based on the T1 Family File (T1FF), a file built from various tax sources. In addition to providing very good coverage, this file is available annually, making it possible to take demographic dynamics between censuses into account instead of relying on the extrapolation of trends. T1FF data are adjusted in various ways for their coverage, bias, and reference date. Moreover, an adjustment is made to census data to reflect census net undercoverage of families and households. Comparisons with 2006 Census figures, adjusted for net undercoverage, indicate that estimates using the new method are more accurate than with the previous methods.
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- 1.
For ease of reading, the term “family” designates census families.
- 2.
For ease of reading, the term “household” designates private households only.
- 3.
For the 1991 and 1996 censuses, Statistics Canada produced an official estimate of census net undercoverage of families. However, this estimate was no longer available as of 2001. In order to continue to take into account census net undercoverage in family estimates, a method based on the correlation between the net undercoverage of individuals and families from the 1991 and 1996 censuses was used to estimate the family net undercoverage for 2001.
- 4.
CCTB is a federal program aimed at helping eligible families with the cost of raising children under age 18 by sending them monthly payments. It is possible to link children from this program to their parents with their social insurance number (SIN) to add them as dependants on the T1FF. However, families with high incomes will not receive CCTB payments. For that reason, CCTB doesn’t cover all children (although around 90 % of the children are present on the file). Children not covered by the CCTB are added to the T1FF with Vital Statistics or with an historical file created from the T1FF from previous years.
- 5.
Changes were made in the processing of children from lone-parent families in the T1FF for 2006. These changes had an impact on the number of lone-parent families and, thus, on the census correction coefficients for 2006.
- 6.
Research will be done to improve the adjustment for the 2011 Census. One very possible improvement is the use of overcoverage data in order to derive families and households undercoverage and overcoverage independently.
- 7.
Given that the new method is based on T1FF families, for which various adjustments are made, the addition of T1FF families to the comparisons will make it possible to measure the added value of these adjustments. Furthermore, assessing the quality of the T1FF with regard to families will also be possible.
- 8.
The headship rate method makes the assumption that there is no census net undercoverage for households. Consequently, it is expected that this method underestimates the number of households during comparisons. However, estimation of household net undercoverage is not intrinsic to the new method. It can therefore be applied to the headship rate method estimates to compare this method with the new one, thereby enabling to control for the effect of household net undercoverage.
References
Statistics Canada. (2007). Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada, Statistics Canada, Statistics Canada Catalogue no 91–528.
Statistics Canada. (2010a). 2006 Census Dictionary, Statistics Canada, Statistics Canada Catalogue no 92–566.
Statistics Canada. (2010b). 2006 Census Technical Report: Coverage, Statistics Canada, Statistics Canada Catalogue no 92–567.
Statistics Canada. (2011). Quarterly Demographic Estimates: April to June 2011, Statistics Canada, Vol. 25, no. 2, Statistics Canada, Statistics Canada Catalogue no 91–002.
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© 2015 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Bérard-Chagnon, J. (2015). Using Tax Data to Estimate the Number of Families and Households in Canada. In: Hoque, M., B. Potter, L. (eds) Emerging Techniques in Applied Demography. Applied Demography Series, vol 4. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8990-5_10
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8990-5_10
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