Chapter

Vulnerability of Agriculture, Water and Fisheries to Climate Change

pp 167-190

Date:

Ex-ante Impact Assessment of ‘Stay-Green’ Drought Tolerant Sorghum Cultivar Under Future Climate Scenarios: Integrated Modeling Approach

  • Swamikannu NedumaranAffiliated withResearch Program – Markets, Institutions and Policies, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) Email author 
  • , Cynthia BantilanAffiliated withResearch Program – Markets, Institutions and Policies, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)
  • , P. AbinayaAffiliated withResearch Program – Markets, Institutions and Policies, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)
  • , Daniel Mason-D’CrozAffiliated withEnvironment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFRI)
  • , A. Ashok KumarAffiliated withRP-Dryland Cereals, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)

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Abstract

An integrated modeling framework – IMPACT – which integrates partial equilibrium economic model, hydrology model, crop simulation model and climate model was used to examine the ex-ante economic impact of developing and disseminating a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar in target countries of Africa and Asia. The impact of drought tolerant sorghum technology on production, consumption, trade flow and prices of sorghum in target and non-target countries were analyzed. And also we estimated the returns to research investment for developing the promising new drought tolerant cultivars and dissemination in the target countries. The analysis indicates that the economic benefits of drought tolerant sorghum cultivar adoption in the target countries outweighs the cost of developing this new technology. The development and release of this new technology in the target countries of Asia and Africa would provide a net economic benefit of about 1,476.8 million US$ for the entire world under no climate change condition. Under climate change scenarios the net benefits derived from adoption of new drought tolerant sorghum cultivar is higher than the no climate change condition. This is due to higher production realized by sorghum under climate change scenarios. The results imply that substantial economic benefits can be achieved from the development of a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar. And also this technology will perform better than the existing cultivars in future climate change condition.

Keywords

Africa and Asia Climate change Drought tolerant sorghum cultivar Economic benefits