Ex-ante Impact Assessment of ‘Stay-Green’ Drought Tolerant Sorghum Cultivar Under Future Climate Scenarios: Integrated Modeling Approach

  • Swamikannu Nedumaran
  • Cynthia Bantilan
  • P. Abinaya
  • Daniel Mason-D’Croz
  • A. Ashok Kumar
Chapter

Abstract

An integrated modeling framework – IMPACT – which integrates partial equilibrium economic model, hydrology model, crop simulation model and climate model was used to examine the ex-ante economic impact of developing and disseminating a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar in target countries of Africa and Asia. The impact of drought tolerant sorghum technology on production, consumption, trade flow and prices of sorghum in target and non-target countries were analyzed. And also we estimated the returns to research investment for developing the promising new drought tolerant cultivars and dissemination in the target countries. The analysis indicates that the economic benefits of drought tolerant sorghum cultivar adoption in the target countries outweighs the cost of developing this new technology. The development and release of this new technology in the target countries of Asia and Africa would provide a net economic benefit of about 1,476.8 million US$ for the entire world under no climate change condition. Under climate change scenarios the net benefits derived from adoption of new drought tolerant sorghum cultivar is higher than the no climate change condition. This is due to higher production realized by sorghum under climate change scenarios. The results imply that substantial economic benefits can be achieved from the development of a drought tolerant sorghum cultivar. And also this technology will perform better than the existing cultivars in future climate change condition.

Keywords

Africa and Asia Climate change Drought tolerant sorghum cultivar Economic benefits 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Swamikannu Nedumaran
    • 1
  • Cynthia Bantilan
    • 1
  • P. Abinaya
    • 1
  • Daniel Mason-D’Croz
    • 2
  • A. Ashok Kumar
    • 3
  1. 1.Research Program – Markets, Institutions and PoliciesInternational Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)HyderabadIndia
  2. 2.Environment and Production Technology DivisionInternational Food Policy Research Institute (IFRI)Washington DCUSA
  3. 3.RP-Dryland CerealsInternational Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)HyderabadIndia

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