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Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in the Large-Scale Response of the Water Cycle

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The Earth's Hydrological Cycle

Part of the book series: Space Sciences Series of ISSI ((SSSI,volume 46))

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Abstract

Despite their obvious environmental, societal and economic importance, our understanding of the causes and magnitude of the variations in the global water cycle is still unsatisfactory. Uncertainties in hydrological predictions from the current generation of models pose a serious challenge to the reliability of forecasts and projections across time and space scales. This paper provides an overview of the current issues and challenges in modelling various aspects of the Earth’s hydrological cycle. These include: the global water budget and water conservation, the role of model resolution and parametrisation of precipitation-generating processes on the representation of the global and regional hydrological cycle, representation of clouds and microphysical processes, rainfall variability, the influence of land–atmosphere coupling on rainfall patterns and their variability, monsoon processes and teleconnections, and ocean and cryosphere modelling. We conclude that continued collaborative activity in the areas of model development across timescales, process studies and climate change studies will provide better understanding of how and why the hydrological cycle may change, and better estimation of uncertainty in model projections of changes in the global water cycle.

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  1. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, UK

    Gill M. Martin

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  1. International Space Science Institute, Hallerstrasse 6, 3012, Bern, Switzerland

    Lennart Bengtsson , R.-M. Bonnet  & M. Calisto ,  & 

  2. Stockholm University, Svante Arrhenius väg 8, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden

    G. Destouni

  3. University of Reading, Earley Gate 3, RG6 6AL, Reading, United Kingdom

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  4. Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormøhlens gate 47, 5006, Bergen, Norway

    J. Johannessen

  5. Center for the Study of the Biosphere from Space, Avenue Edouard Belin 18, 31401, Toulouse, France

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  6. Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Instituttveien 18, 2027, Kjeller, Norway

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  7. ESA-ESRIN, Via Galileo Galilei, 00044, Frascati, Italy

    M. Rast

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Martin, G.M. (2012). Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in the Large-Scale Response of the Water Cycle. In: Bengtsson, L., et al. The Earth's Hydrological Cycle. Space Sciences Series of ISSI, vol 46. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8789-5_5

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