Abstract
This chapter examines the quantitative scenarios built, so as to define their qualitative dimensions, left undetermined by the quantitative analysis. Initially, for each region and globally, the scenarios were tested for their internal coherence and conclusions were drawn from their comparison. The aim was to establish whether, on both a regional and global scale, the quantitative assumptions for the different variables make it possible to put together truly coherent scenarios, that is, compatible with the principles chosen initially, particularly the principle of sustainability in the case of the Agrimonde 1 scenario. Comparison of the two scenarios (Agrimonde 1 and Agrimonde GO) enables us to oppose two very different strategies, both of which (theoretically) allow for a food resource-use balance on a global scale, as shown in Chap. 8.
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Notes
- 1.
According to the Mediterra Report, the urban population of the Southern Mediterranean increased from 108 million inhabitants in 1990 to 140 million inhabitants in 2000. It is estimated at 214 million inhabitants in 2020 (CIHEAM 2008).
- 2.
In North Africa, the average distance between towns shrunk from 66 km to 21 km between 1950 and 1995 in the coastal area, and from 66 km to 32 km inland (CIHEAM 2008).
- 3.
In this respect, Mediterra proposes, in order to “safeguard the land”: setting up a dynamic and exhaustive system to monitor land trends (area and quality of agricultural and arable land); strengthening the effectiveness of legal systems capable of clearly distinguishing agricultural land from building land; and promoting the contracting of rural leases (CIHEAM 2008).
- 4.
Ley farming is a technique developed in Australia, based on superficial tillage and cereal/alfalfa crop rotation for better crop-livestock integration (Lahmar 2006).
- 5.
“In the Southern Mediterranean, food availabilities have risen steeply over the past forty years, with a mean gain of 800 kcal/cap/day” (CIHEAM 2008).
- 6.
The 2005 UNDP report on human development shows that SSA is the region of the world with the most inequality. Its GINI index is 72.2 (UNDP, 2005). This coefficient measures the degree of inequality of income distribution in a given society. It ranges from 0 (perfect equality) to 100 (total inequality: one person concentrates all the income and the others have nothing).
- 7.
The creole garden concept refers to a wide diversity of plants cultivated, often together, on a small surface area.
- 8.
This crisis of agrarian systems results in: small area per family, difficulty maintaining soil fertility, production caps, competition for use of resources (Griffon 2006).
- 9.
The 2005 UNDP human development report shows that LAM is one of the regions with the most inequality in the world, second only to SSA. Its GINI index is 57.1, compared to 72.2 for SSA (UNDP 2005).
- 10.
Strictly food-producing areas have grown by only 19 % in Agrimonde 1 and 5 % in Agrimonde GO.
- 11.
Techniques developed on 6 million ha in 2004 (rice/wheat) or (rice/maize) (Griffon 2006).
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Ronzon, T., Chaumet, JM., Paillard, S. (2014). Agrimonde 1 and Agrimonde GO: Comparison, Coherence, Drivers of Change. In: Paillard, S., Treyer, S., Dorin, B. (eds) Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8745-1_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8745-1_9
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