Abstract
The higher education system in the USA has been the envy of the world for decades. Yet recently, graduation rates in the USA have lagged behind those in other nations, raising concerns that the USA may not be able to maintain its competitive edge in human capital investment. Economic theory suggests that individuals enroll in college when the marginal benefit associated with enrollment exceeds the marginal cost. This chapter offers a detailed review of the factors influencing enrollment in a simple human capital model: the employment horizon, the college wage premium, the opportunity and net tuition costs, and the discount/interest rate. After a brief discussion of heterogeneity, a more complex model that relaxes many of the assumptions inherent in the simple model is presented. This model incorporates unemployment, benefits packages, taxes, and imperfect capital markets. The chapter concludes with a brief review of dynamic factors and supply-side constraints.
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Notes
- 1.
The discussion here is limited to enrollment. As stated in the introduction, enrollment is a necessary condition for graduation. To meet future needs, however, students must not only enroll but also graduate. Further work examining progress to a degree is essential, but beyond the scope of this text.
- 2.
The employment rate (the number employed divided by the number in the population) could also be used to illustrate the impact of the Social Security Act, but this number shows far more variability over the course of business cycles.
- 3.
Individuals who are in the military or enrolled in college full time are also excluded.
- 4.
The post-World War II GI Bill also offered significant aid to veterans enrolling in college, and there is evidence (Bound and Turner 2002) that this bill substantially increased veterans’ educational attainment.
- 5.
Resources that are purchased under contract are not purely variable if a minimum quantity or a minimum payment is required.
- 6.
An underlying assumption of this discussion is that given the same income, those with less education would make the same consumption choices as those with more education. In fact, different individuals will value benefits differently. If less educated individuals place a lower value on benefits, then they will be less likely to receive them. So long, however, as they place a positive value on benefits, different benefits levels by education level still contribute to the compensation differential; it is only the value of the differential that is reduced.
- 7.
- 8.
By contrast, in looking at the impact of baby boomers’ retirements, Neumark et al. (2013) report that a skill shortage is unlikely to occur in the next 5 years.
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Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Robert Andrews, Terry Ishitani, Christine Keller, and Sarah Turner for their comments on an earlier draft. Any errors or omissions are, of course, my own responsibility.
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Stratton, L.S. (2014). College Enrollment: An Economic Analysis. In: Paulsen, M. (eds) Higher Education: Handbook of Theory and Research. Higher Education: Handbook of Theory and Research, vol 29. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8005-6_8
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