Acknowledging Long-Term Ecological Change: The Problem of Shifting Baselines
Shifting baselines describes the phenomenon where long-term changes to an environment go unrecognized because what is perceived as natural shifts with succeeding generations of scientists and other observers. This is a particular problem for the oceans because we are rarely able to directly observe the consequences of human activities. In the absence of data to track these consequences, a common assumption has been that the communities we observe today using SCUBA or other technology, are similar to the communities that existed 10, 100, or even 1000 years ago. Research is increasingly demonstrating this is not the case. Instead, marine ecosystems may have been vastly different in the past, and we have succumbed to the shifting baselines syndrome. This has significant implications for scientific study, management, and for human communities more broadly. We discuss these implications, and how we might address the shifting baseline syndrome in the oceans to confront its repercussions. In a world where environmental degradation is accelerating, doing so is critical to avoid further ratcheting down of our expectations of ecosystem health and productivity, and to ensure that we have the information necessary to implement appropriate recovery and management goals.
KeywordsShifting baselines Intergenerational change Historical variability Retrospective data Social-ecological system
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