Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for the Czech Republic

Summary

This chapter summarizes the results of the Czech Republic’s assessments of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. This assessment has two principal parts: detailed analysis of possible scenarios of future climate, and analysis of vulnerability and adaptation for agriculture, forestry, water resources, and health. The findings are summarized here for all sectors except the health sector, where the assessment found that the potential impact of climate change was insignificant (Kveton and Kazmarová, 1995). For the agriculture sector, a decrease in precipitation could lead to a change in winter wheat yields of −3% to +16% depending on the climate scenario. A number of adaptation measures are proposed, including improved soil management, integrated pest control, and careful water use. The potential impact on forests could be large, especially because there are already several problems (e.g., prevalence of Norway spruce monoculture) in this sector that would be exacerbated. The main adaptation mechanisms proposed are increased species diversity and sustainable forest management. The impact on water resources was estimated by modeling four catchments. The result under most of the scenarios was, at a minimum, a one-third decrease in runoff.