Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Epidemic Modelling of HIV/AIDS Transfers between Eastern and Western Europe

  • Chapter
Modelling Geographical Systems

Part of the book series: The GeoJournal Library ((GEJL,volume 70))

  • 322 Accesses

Abstract

A recent analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Western Europe revealed a number of north-south contrasts (Thomas, 2000). The introduction of antiretroviral drug combination therapies that suppress symptoms of AIDS in those with HIV (Feigal et al., 1999; Deschamps et al., 2000), for example, appears to have had the greater health impact in northern countries. Similarly, the comparatively low incidence in the north, which is predominantly among gay men, was supported by more extensive travel patterns than in the south, where intravenous drug use (IVDU) is the major risk behaviour. These findings were obtained by fitting a multiregion epidemic model to reported AIDS incidence in each country. The present paper extends this space-time analysis to all the countries of Europe with the intention of identifying further structural differences between east and west.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Anderson, R.M. and R.M. May (1991), Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baroyan, O.V. and L.A. Rvachev (1967), `Deterministic epidemic models for a territory with a transport network.’ Kibernetika, 3, 67–74.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bryan, D. and M. O’Kelly (1999), `Hub and spoke networks in air transportation: an analytical review.’ Journal of Regional Science, 39, 275–296.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deschamps, D., P. Flandre and V. Calvez (2000), `Mechanisms for virologic failure in previously untreated HIV-infected patients from a trial of induction maintenance therapy.’ Journal of the American Medical Association, 283, 205–211.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flahault, A. and A.J. Valleron (1992), `A method for assessing the global spread of HIV-1 infection based on air travel.’ Mathematical Population Studies, 3, 161–171.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feigal, E.G. (1999), `AIDS-associated malignancies: research perspectives.’ Biochimica et Biophysica Acta, 1423(1), cl—c9.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frankenberg, G. (1992), `Germany: the uneasy triumph of pragmatism.’ In D.L.Kirp and R. Bayer (eds.), AIDS in the Industrialised Democracies; Passions, Politics and Policies. Rutgers University Press, New Brunswick, N.J., pp. 99–133.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hersh, B.S. (1991), `AIDS in Romania.’ Lancet, 338, 645–649.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacquez, J.A., C.P. Simon and J. Koopman (1995), `Core groups and the ROs for subgroups in heterogeneous SIS and SI models.’ In D.Mollison (ed.),. Epidemic Models: Their Structure and Relation to Data. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 279–301.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, A., J. Wadsworth, K. Wellings and J. Field (1994), Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles. Blackwell Scientific Publishing, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Knox, E.G., C. MacArthur and K.J. Simons (1993), Sexual Behaviour and AIDS in Great Britain. HMSO, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lajmanovich, A. and J.A. Yorke (1976), `A deterministic model for gonorrhoea in a nonhomogeneous population.’ Mathematical Bioscience, 28, 221–236.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lamptey, P. and D. Tarantola (1998), HIV/AIDS in Eastern Europe. WHO, Boston.

    Google Scholar 

  • Longini, 1.M., P.E.M. Fine and S.B. Thacker (1986), `Predicting the global spread of new infectious agents.’ American Journal of Epidemiology, 123, 383–391.

    Google Scholar 

  • May, R.M., R.M. Anderson and S. Blower (1989), `The epidemiology and transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS.’ Daedalus, 118, 163–201.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murray, G.D. and A.D. Cliff (1977), `A stochastic model for measles epidemics in a multi-

    Google Scholar 

  • region setting.’ Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers (New Series),2, 158–177.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nowak, M., R.M. Anderson, A.R. McLean, T. Wolfs, J. Goudsmit and R.M. May (1991), `Antigenic diversity thresholds and the development of AIDS.’ Science, 254, 963–969.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Obadia, Y., D. Rey and J.P. Moatti (1994), `HIV prenatal screening in south-eastern France: differences in seroprevalence and screening policies by pregnancy outcome.’ AIDS Care, 6, 29–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rezza, G., A. De Rose, M. Dorrucci, C. Arpino and I. Serafin (1993), `Declining prevalence of HIV infection among injecting drug users entering drug treatment in Italy, 1990–1991.’ European Journal of Epidemiology, 9, 663–666.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, P.S., H.M. Gail and R.J. Carroll (1992), `Estimating HIV prevalence and projecting AIDS incidence in the United States: a model that accounts for therapy and changes in the surveillance definition of AIDS.’ Statistics in Medicine, 11, 1633–1655.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sattenspiel, L. and K. Dietz (1995), `A structured epidemic model incorporating geographic mobility among regions.’ Mathematical Biosciences 128, 71–91.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, P.W. (2003), Multiregion modelling of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Europe. Unpublished Ph.D. thesis, School of Geography, University of Manchester (forthcoming).

    Google Scholar 

  • Stark, K. and R. Muller (1993), `HIV prevalence and risk behaviour in injecting drug users in Berlin.’ Forensic Science International, 62, 73–81.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas, R.W. (1999a), `Reproduction rates in multiregion modeling systems for HIV/AIDS.’ Journal of Regional Science, 39, 359–385.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas, R.W. (1999b), `Stability and mixing conditions for HIV/AIDS models with regional compartments.’ Journal of Geographical Systems, 1, 347–365.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas, R.W. (2000), `Reconstructing the space-time structure of the HIV/AIDS epidemic for the countries of Western Europe.’ Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers (New Series), 25, 445–464.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas, R.W. (2001), `Estimated population mixing by country and risk cohort for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Western Europe.’ Journal of Geographical Systems, 3, 283–301.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas, R.W. and T.E. Smith (2000), ‘Multiregion contact systems for modelling STD epidemics.’ Statistics in Medicine, 19, 2479–2491.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Toubiana, L. and J.F. Vibert (1998), `An artificial neural network model for the spread of communicable diseases.’ In L. Gierl, A.D. Cliff, A.J. Valleron, P. Farrington and M. Bull (eds.), GEOMED ‘87; Proceedings of the International Workshop on Geomedical Systems. Teubner

    Google Scholar 

  • Verlag, Leipzig, 249–259.

    Google Scholar 

  • UN (1984), Statistical Yearbook, 33, 760–763

    Google Scholar 

  • UN (2000), Statistical Yearbook, 44, 928–949

    Google Scholar 

  • WHO (1998), `The HIV/AIDS situation, June 1998.’ Weekly Epidemiological Record, 73, 195–197.

    Google Scholar 

  • WHO (2000a), Epidemiological Fact Sheets on HIV/AIDS and Sexually Transmitted Diseases.

    Google Scholar 

  • UNAIDS/WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STD Surveillance, Geneva.

    Google Scholar 

  • WHO (2000b), Global Surveillance of Epidemic-prone Infectious Diseases. Geneva.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, J.S. and P.H. Rees (1994), `A simulation of the transmission of HIV and AIDS in regional populations within the United Kingdom.’ Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers (New Series), 19, 311–330.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK

    Phillip Smith & Richard Thomas

Authors
  1. Phillip Smith
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Richard Thomas
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Wilfrid Laurier University, Ontario, Canada

    Barry Boots

  2. Center for Spatial Information Science, University of Tokyo, Japan

    Atsuyuki Okabe

  3. University of Manchester, UK

    Richard Thomas

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2003 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Smith, P., Thomas, R. (2003). Epidemic Modelling of HIV/AIDS Transfers between Eastern and Western Europe. In: Boots, B., Okabe, A., Thomas, R. (eds) Modelling Geographical Systems. The GeoJournal Library, vol 70. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-2296-4_7

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-2296-4_7

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-90-481-6104-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-017-2296-4

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation