Terrain and Guerrilla Warfare in Navarre, 1808–1814

Abstract

Through recent history, the relationship between physical terrain and guerrilla success has been treated as a matter of received wisdom, but few quantitative studies on this topic have surfaced to verify this relationship. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively assess the extent to which the physical geography of the terrain is a direct factor in the implementation of guerrilla warfare and its success. This study empirically tests the validity of conventional wisdom, by investigating the statistical relationship between physical terrain and the outcome of guerrilla conflict for a sample of 35 historical battles, in which the Spanish peasantry fought against Napoleon’s invading Grande Armée in the early 1800’s. It was during this conflict that the term ‘guerrilla’ was coined. An historical reconstruction of these 35 battles has yielded information on the physical conditions in which each battle was fought and on its outcome.