Abstract
We introduce new techniques for the computation of the collision probability for Earth-crossing asteroids in the case of short observational arcs and/or small numbers of observations. The techniques rely on the orbital element probability density computed using statistical orbital ranging. We apply the techniques to the Earth-crossing asteroid 1998 OX4 with non-vanishing collision probability in numerous close approaches after the year 2012 (inclusive). We study the invariance of the collision probability in transformations between different orbital element sets, and develop a Spearman rank correlation measure for the validity of the linear approximation. We introduce an optimized, fast version of the statistical ranging method.
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Muinonen, K., Virtanen, J., Bowell, E. (2001). Collision Probability for Earth-Crossing Asteroids Using Orbital Ranging. In: Pretka-Ziomek, H., Wnuk, E., Seidelmann, P.K., Richardson, D.L. (eds) Dynamics of Natural and Artificial Celestial Bodies. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1327-6_11
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1327-6_11
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
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