Conversion and Control of Technological Capabilities in the Missile Field: The “Dual-Use Paradox”

Abstract

It is often assumed that an economic unit specialised in the development or manufacture of military products will be better placed to face a conversion or diversification process if these products have potential civilian applications (“dual-use” items). In other words, producers of “dual-use” items can enjoy a “technological bridge” that allows them to cross from military to civilian production. This paper points out that there is a less palatable side to “dual-use”. The same technological similarity that facilitates conversion makes it easier to revert to military production should the need or the desire to do so arise. In areas where weapons proliferation raises special concerns, this possibility can create difficulties of a political nature for conversion policies. If, for instance, foreign countries feel that technological efforts carried out under civilian programmes may result in future military applications, they may regard conversion attempts with suspicion. If devoid of foreign support conversion attempts falter, “dual-use” may have had the paradoxical effect of posing an obstacle to the conversion process. This paradox will be discussed here with the help of examples extracted from the ballistic missile field. The paper will illustrate how the dual-use applications of rocket technologies affect conversion initiatives in the rocket and space industries.