Abstract
The possible climatic impact of the increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect has become a source of international concern. Numerical models have determined that the continuing use of fossil fuels as our first energy source should elevate the temperature of the Earth by a few degrees within a few decades. The analysis of the Antarctic Vostok ice core has also revealed that the CO2 and the mean temperature have evolved quasi-simultaneously throughout the ice ages (Lorius et al. 1990). As a global warming of a few degrees would have important social, economical and political implications, there is strong pressure to obtain from scientists a more precise assessment of the expected future changes. But the climatologists are discovering the huge complexity of the problem, which was not fully anticipated from the beginning. In this text we review the strengths and weaknesses of the models used for those climate sensitivity studies, and the variety of mechanisms that must be better understood before any accurate prediction can be made.
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Le Treut, H. (1997). Climate of the Future: An Evaluation of the Current Uncertainties. In: Yoshino, M., Domrös, M., Douguédroit, A., Paszyński, J., Nkemdirim, L.C. (eds) Climates and Societies — A Climatological Perspective. The GeoJournal Library, vol 36. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1055-8_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1055-8_6
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