Abstract
There is a current opinion that modern civilization has reduced the risk of natural hazards. A thorough analysis of empirical data gathered over the years, however, argues that our society continues to be highly vulnerable to natural disasters that are more destructive then ever. My estimate shows that average losses inflicted by these disasters in the former Soviet Union have now exceeded two percent of GDP per year. Therefore, economic and intellectual input into forecasting should be increased. More accurate and sophisticated forecasting would reduce the number of victims and their losses from natural disasters.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Journal Articles
Arabov, V., Kazaryan, A., Porfiriev, B., Prigozine, A. and Kharash, A. (1989) “Disaster: Lessons and Hopes.” Znanie-Syla. 6, 7 (in Russian).
Drabek, Thomas E. (1983) “Alternative Patterns of Decision-Making in Emergent Disaster Response Networks.” International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. 1, 2 August, 277–305.
Dynes, Russell R. and Quarantelli, E. L. (1976) “Community Conflict: Its Absence and Its Presence in Natural Disasters.” Mass Emergencies. 1:139–152.
Mileti, Dennis S. (1983) “Societal Comparisons of Organizational Response to Earthquake Predictions: Japan vs. United States.” International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. 1,3:399–414.
Nigg, Joanne M. (1982) “Communication Under Conditions of Uncertainty: Understanding Earthquake Forecasting.” Journal of Communication. 32:27–36.
Sobolev, G. A. (1989) “Problems of Quakes Prediction.” Priroda. 12:47–54, (in Russian).
Turner, Ralph H. (1983) “Waiting for Disaster: Changing Reactions to Earthquake Forecasts in Southern California.” International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. 1, 2: 307–334.
Book references
Quarantelli, E. L. (1978) Editor. Disasters: Theory and Research. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.
Preliminary papers
Pelanda, C. (1981) “Disaster and Socioeconomic Vulnerability.” Preliminary Paper 68, Columbus, OH: Disaster Research Center, The Ohio State University.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1993 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Porfiriev, B.N. (1993). Uncertainties in Natural Hazards Prediction and its Effect on User Communities Perception: Soviet Union Case Study. In: Nemec, J., Nigg, J.M., Siccardi, F. (eds) Prediction and Perception of Natural Hazards. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, vol 2. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8190-5_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8190-5_6
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-4289-7
Online ISBN: 978-94-015-8190-5
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive