Abstract
New applications of science and technology are typically saddled with high levels of uncertainty. Whether one is dealing with genetically engineered organisms, hazardous chemicals, or energy facilities, new applications of science and technology have not withstood the test of time. Safe periods of operating experience have not been established because, by defmition, the applications are new, and many of their risks are unknown.
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Notes
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See also C. Whipple, “Nonpessimistic Risk Assessment, ” in Paustenbach, RA 1989, pp. 1112–1113; hereafter cited as: Whipple, Risk 1989. Finally
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D. Okrent and C. Whipple, Approach to Societal Risk Acceptance Criteria and Risk Management, PB-271264 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, 1975), p. 10. For methylene Chloride risk Information, see Falco and Moraski, Methods 1989, and Reitz, Risk 1989.
W. Lowrance, “The Nature of Risk, ” in Schwing and Albers, SRA, p. 6; hereafter cited as: NR. See Rowe, Anatomy, p. 264.
W. Fairley, “Criteria for Evaluating the ‘Small’ Probability, ” in Okrent, RBMA, p. 425; hereafter cited as: Criteria.
See Notes 18 and 19. See also NRC, Appendix XI, 2–1–2–14; W. Hafele, “Benefit-Risk Tradeoffs in Nuclear Power Generation, ” in Energy and the Environment: A Risk-Benefit Approach, ed. H. Ashley, R. Ashley, R. Rudman, and C. Whipple (New York: Pergamon, 1976), pp. 159–169; Lieberman, GH, pp. 250–255. See Whipple, Risk 1989, and Cohen, Risk 1989.
Gleick and Holdren, Risks 1981, p. 1046.
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Kasper, Perceptions, p. 73. D. Cleverly, et al., Municipal Waste Combustion Study (New York: Taylor and Francis, 1989), pp. A-10, 2–6, 2–12, and 3–18, for examples of these uncertainties.
L. Cox and P. Ricci, “Risk, Uncertainty, and Causation, ” in Paustenbach, RA 1989, p. 151;
See also L. Maxim, “Problems Associated with the Use of Conservative Assumptions in Exposure and Risk Analysis, ” in Paustenbach, RA 1989, pp. 526 ff.
A. Lovins, “Cost-Risk-Benefit Assessment in Energy Policy, ” George Washington Law Review 45, no. 5 (1977): 926. Similar problems are expressed, for example, by
J. Harkins, E. Scott, and W. Walsh, “A Legal Viewpoint, ” in Woodhead, Variation 1988, pp. 218 ff.;
see also R. Cortesi, “Variation in Individual Response, ” in Woodhead, Variation 1988, pp. 288–289.
NRC, pp. 108–109, 118, 186, 239, 245–246.
See Cohen, Risk 1989, p. 575, and Whipple, Risk 1989, pp. 1111–1113. See also K. S. Shrader-Frechette, Risk and Rationality (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991), ch. 3.
H. Stretton, Capitalism, Socialism, and the Environment (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1976), p. 51; hereafter cited as: CSE. See Andrews, RA 1988, pp. 85–97.
D. Dickson, The Politics of Alternative Technology (New York: Universe Books, 1975), p. 189; hereafter cited as: PAT. See also
See also K. S. Shrader-Frechette, Risk and Rationality (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991), chs. 2 and 5.
Dickson, PAT, and Stretton, CSE.
Samuels, Power 1988, p. 118.
Cited in D. Bazelon, “Risk and Responsibility, ” Science 205, no. 4403 (1979): 277–280.
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Shrader-Frechette, K.S. (1993). Probabilistic Uncertainty and Technological Risks. In: Von Schomberg, R. (eds) Science, Politics and Morality. Theory and Decision Library, vol 17. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8143-1_4
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